[CT Birds] Pine Grosbeaks and Sea Level Rise

[ORCHIDS]

have nothing in common.

I have searched for the UConn Grosbeaks with no success.  I happened  
to be in Worcester MA the other week and went in search of the  
Grosbeaks at the Worcester Airport - success (check the central Mass  
Bird website for details - shorter drive for us in Eastern  
Connecticut).  Several weeks ago I drove through Eastern Connecticut  
State University - lots of crabapples.  Last weekend - I found no  
crabapples.  I have recently realized that almost every public school  
and industrial park that has any landscaping - has crab apples.  Many  
that I have checked have crab apples that have been stripped of  
berries.  These are the places folk should search for Waxwings and  
Grosbeaks.

Sea level rise.  The Coastal Management Program of DEP and the Inland  
Water Resources Division were successful at requesting FEMA fly our  
coast to provide the state/towns with high resolution elevation data  
so that one can forecast the inundation impacts from accelerated sea  
level rise.  The Coastal Management Program plans to examine these  
data and consider the spectrum of sea level rise forecasts to identify  
existing terrestrial systems that will become tomorrows tidal wetlands  
- what were are called tidal wetland refugia.  It may be that existing  
state owned lands will provided the space for these refugia.  The  
question is being asked as to the need to capture at least plant  
biodiversity through harvesting seed and storing them in a seed bank  
for future restoration projects as climate change is brought under  
control.  The latest IPCC report indicates that even if the globe were  
to address climate mitigation tomorrow, there are changes in motion  
and sea level rise is one.

The recent IPCC report actually reduced the range of sea level rise  
ranges so that folk would focus on the message - that is climate  
change is real and has a strong signature from man's activities in but  
the last century or so.  There are forecasts in the peer review  
scientific journals that project sea levels (extremes under a no  
action scenario) that may run as high as 1.5 meters by 2100 (without a  
contribution from Greenland or Antarctica - the vast ice that lies on  
land and could have significant effects on future sea level rise).  If  
you have seen Al Gore's movie, you know that the release of all of the  
water Greenland could raise sea levels 23 feet (but no time frame is  
offered).  There are recent forecasts in the science, that suggest  
there is the likelihood of an ice free Arctic by 2013!  This will not  
directly affect sea level rise but a warmer Arctic (ice free oceans  
absorb more radiant heat) could affect the melting of Antarctica.   
Science is on a steep learning curve about how our planet operates and  
what recent changes are actually due to climate change but we should  
see more accurate forecasts in the near term.  If you want to stay  
abreast the real science (not one of those websites created by the oil  
industry without the peer reviewed science) subscribe to the NASA  
Earth Observatory Website.  Once a week - Tuesday night you will  
receive one email with links to summaries about the current science on  
many subjects, not just climate change.

Remember the prolonged retention of leaves on our trees last fall -  
into December.  Scientific studies of trees in Europe found that it  
was not the warmer temperatures causing this, but actually the  
elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmospheric.  Warmer falls in the  
Northeast are apparently reducing the amount of CO2 our forests  
sequester.  These findings are delivered to your doorstep once a week  
- you can be a judge of the science and the scientific discourse.

A great source of information about climate change impacts in the  
Northeast can be found at the website of the Union of  Concerned  
Scientists.  Their reports translate the science into easy to  
understand impacts that we are likely to see in the northeast included  
state by state summaries.  To be sure some of the forecasts are  
frightening and the first reaction may be denial.  There is life after  
denial - how do we take these forecasts and 1) do what it necessary to  
reduce greenhouse gases - get a hybrid, don't idle your car when you  
go into the dunken doughnuts for coffee, etc and 2) how do we protect  
our biodiversity from climate change.  I continue to ask Chris Elphick  
about the fate of the seaside sparrows from accelerated sea level rise  
and what might we do (like tidal wetland refugia) to help these  
species survive into the future.

I read with curiosity about the report in yesterday's digest about the  
frequency of Black Vulture sightings.  Is this the result of warming  
trends or a change in habitat?

Ron Rozsa, Ashford.