[CT Birds] Migration forecast?
Mntncougar at aol.com
Mntncougar at aol.com
Wed Mar 31 12:10:59 EDT 2010
Without doubt the early spring migration has begun. There was an
interesting post on the OHIO bird list (see below) about prospects for migration in
the near future. of course it was targeted towards the midwest. I wonder
if some of our gurus would venture a similar prognostication for the
period after the monsoon has passed and the warm days the weather guy is
promising arrive. Should we be looking at the radar sites for guidance, and if
so, what areas or states are likely staging areas for our birds?
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 2010 05:43:56 -0700
From: Greg Miller <hawk-owl at YAHOO.COM>
Subject: Migration Musings
Birds seem to follow the calendar despite weather conditions. Wind,
temperature, and humidity only seem to augment or degrade the volume of migrants.
That said, weather does appear to merit consideration to maximize a
birder's succesa with limited time in the field. So here are some of my musings.
Totally unscientific and unsubstantiated, these are just personal
opinions of mine.
* A moderately cold day or two doesn't appear to have much affect on
migration numbers. An extended cold snap of 3-5 days, however, seems to really
slow things down to a trickle.
* The first warmer day or two after a prolonged cold snap appears to be
the "best" time for birders to enjoy a great volume of migrants. After two
days of warmer temperatures and southerly winds migrants seem to clear out.
So here are my predictions for the week (using weather.unisys.com's GFXs
850mb weather models or about 5,000 feet in elevation--about the elevation
used by waterfowl and shorebirds):
Excellent migration conditions in TX, OK, KS, NE, & SD
Poor migration conditions East of Mississippi River
OHIO: not so great
Excellent migration conditons from NM and TX to the Great Lakes, and
warmer upper air accross the entire Gulf of Mexico
OHIO: pretty good; above average
Same as Wednesday, but even warmer with highly favorable wind direction
from TX to MI
Temperature will push close to record highs; favorable conditions continue
in all of the East and extend into Southern Canada
Favorable conditions continue East of the Mississippi River and across the
Gulf; low pressure forming from TX to MN with colder upper air may create
unstable conditions and t-storms
OHIO: excellent conditions, but how many migrants will remain and how
many new will have arrived?
Cooler upper air and less favorable conditions
OHIO: if the low pressure tracks North of us birding may be closer to
average for this time of year; else, it could be cooler and less an enjoyable
So my take from this for Ohio migration this week:
* Thursday will probably be the best day (a wild guess!)
* Birds I would look for include:
American Golden-Plover (maybe in better numbers than normal)
Sage Thrasher (Eastern MA RBA)
Townsend's Solitaire (NYC RBA)
You may think of some others. The first warm air will come up through
Mexico into Texas and will push northeast on a line from TX to OH--who knows
what that may bring. I'm just curious.
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