[CT Birds] Earl/Stratford Point

Scott Kruitbosch kbosch at gmail.com
Wed Sep 1 11:45:05 EDT 2010

Apart from bird specifics, Earl seems to be right on track to pass over or
near the infamous benchmark, 40N/70W. Hurricane force winds should be
confined to the Cape, if at all, and tropical storm force winds should only
barely get to extreme eastern CT. I mean *barely*, as this should end up as
nothing more than a strong nor'easter by all appearances, so don't worry.
Right now, from west to east, we in CT stand a 30-50% chance of seeing those
TS winds (average over 39MPH for >1 minute). Here -
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html - is a simple flash animation of
the eastern CONUS infrared satellite loop. You can see Earl obviously, and
looking towards the west from Michigan to Tennessee is the trough that is
coming to save us from anything of real consequence. It will push Earl away
and out to sea. The race is on...but we already know who will win, and it
isn't Earl.

As others have stated the key is that Earl will be directly south of us for
a bit, albeit moving quickly, throwing birds in towards CT and LIS because
of the cyclonic winds. Think of the eye of the storm being south of us while
east of New Jersey, moving northeast, and winds spinning in a
counter-clockwise fashion. Even though they won't be really getting to us
this as it moves off it will move good birds in. Earl should only be a CAT 2
by the time it is up here, but its previous strength and increasing speed
will only help our chances of it having carried some rarities with it.

Stratford Point will not be open probably until later in the evening
tonight, so plan ahead with that. The kite has shown up around 6:30 the last
couple of nights probably because of the heat. We'll see what it does
tonight, but with yet another day of temperatures well into the 90s I would
guess it may do the same.

Scott Kruitbosch
Stratford, CT
Connecticut Audubon Society

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