[CT Birds] Bluff Point tomorrow

David Provencher davidprovencher at sbcglobal.net
Sun Sep 25 21:04:25 EDT 2011

Predicting a hot corner morning flight event at Bluff Point is all about
surface winds. I needn't go into the specifics of the influence of the local
topography and weather on morning flight migratory behavior here, suffice it
say that if the surface winds are calm or northerly, than the show at Bluff
is on. This can be difficult to predict because just a light wind with a
southerly component will kill the hot corner. That doesn't mean there was no
migration, or morning flight, just that the hot corner won't be any good.
Morning flight occurs every morning of migration, both Spring and Fall
regardless of surface wind direction. Tomorrow's surface wind forecast for
Groton and area is for light southerly winds. If that ends up being correct
(and as I write this the surface winds are light out of the northwest -
which bodes well actually if it holds) than the hot corner will be dead. So
if that surface forecast is wrong (as today's was and as I just mentioned
the current winds are northerly) the hot corner could be interesting. It is
relatively easy to predict slam dunk hot corner events but I have learned
over many years that sometimes what looks like a potentially good day is
ruined by minor surface wind swings. I should also point out that any day in
September or October that the surface winds are northerly and it isn't
raining will see some level of observable morning flight at the hot corner.


So to simplify the surface wind affect on the hot corner morning flight at
Bluff Point in Groton;


Good surface winds; Calm, North, and northwest.

Poor surface winds; Northeast, east.

Bad surface winds; Southeast, south, west, and southwest.


Dave Provencher

Naturally New England


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