[CT Birds] Weather and movement thoughts
kbosch at gmail.com
Fri Sep 14 21:00:55 EDT 2012
I hope to see many of you tomorrow (and then all weekend) at Boothe Park in
Stratford for the COA workshop. After being asked about it, here are my
basic thoughts on the next few days...
The cold front should pass between midnight and 2AM or so. There is a lot
of dry air in place and with the front weakening as it comes with the best
forcing to our north, we should be dry until it passes, and maybe
throughout with nothing more than cloud cover. By the morning it should be
to our east with those areas only having a slight chance of rain, and we
should have clouds and a rapidly changing NW flow. This could be gusty
early, 20+ MPH, and it will be turbulent aloft. When we mix out some of the
winds/clouds and get the atmosphere stabilized things should heat up for
us, but it depends how fast this happens and how fast it moves to our east
as we'll need time and space to get the birds going and the upper levels
calm. You know how it can be right after frontal passage as it takes time
to get things moving with the high coming in, and I'd have preferred this
front to go by 12 hours earlier. It's better than nothing though!
Overnight we should set up the full zonal flow and clear everything off the
deck except for our classic winds. Sunday should be very good (maybe except
for the lack of clouds) with a nice NW breeze that will transition to W,
probably not until the later afternoon or evening. Either way, being in the
15-20 date range and with a good flow setting up, we're going to have some
fun. We will have a nice passerine morning on Sunday as well. Monday might
be decent for some, too. On Tuesday we may have a significant system with
40+ winds and inches of rain. It could include severe storms and tornadic
activity. That will be followed by more good hawk watching weather.
I'd hesitate to say we're going to have an enormous day (like last year
even though we'll be in the range with good conditions because they've had
time to filter through earlier in the week and should be split up over the
next few days. You can even look at last year's big day and note the cold
front preceding it went through the previous afternoon, about 12 hours
earlier, with the most perfect high setting up in exactly the right place.
What we do know is that good birds will be visiting us in the next week
from any and all of this. Enjoy it.
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