[CT Birds] rarity-friendly weather

Nick Bonomo nbonomo at gmail.com
Fri Nov 6 12:02:24 EST 2015

A good sign...a few Cave Swallows have been seen today near Rochester,
NY along the Lake Ontario shoreline. So some have reached our
latitude. Winds will shift here tomorrow morning. Sunday's weather is
probably the best of the next few days for hopefully bringing some
Caves to our shoreline.

We haven't had a good Cave Swallow push here since November of 2012,
so it would be nice to see some again this year. And some other
central/western vagrants to go along with them would be even better.
Keep your eyes open.

Nick Bonomo
Wallingford, CT

On Thu, Nov 5, 2015 at 3:18 PM, Nick Bonomo <nbonomo at gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi all,
> I made the following post on my blog and figured it was worth
> mentioning here too:
> "Here in southern New England (and the northeast as a whole) we are in
> the midst of an unseasonably warm spell for early November. As is
> generally the case, a southwest flow is to thank. This weather tends
> to get birders thinking about rarities and reverse migrants at this
> time of year. November is rarity month, after all.
> As you can see on the map above, a couple low pressure systems and
> associated cold fronts are currently draped across the center of the
> continent. Ahead of these is a warm southwest flow, and behind is a
> cool northwest wind. We've talked about this a bunch of times over the
> years, but it is worth mentioning every time. This pattern *may* bring
> some cool birds to our region. The idea is that birds may move with
> the winds ahead of the front ("reverse migrants" that go north instead
> of south like they should), then might also get pushed back south with
> the winds behind the front. This is what happens with Cave
> Swallows...they ride the warm southerly flow from the Texas region
> (presumably) to the Great Lakes region, then are pushed towards the
> east coast when the winds shift after frontal passage. It is a pattern
> that has played itself out many times over the past decade especially
> and is often quite predictable. The current setup is not a classic
> slam-dunk (the winds are not that strong nor terribly prolonged, and
> Cave Swallow doesn't peak until mid-late Nov), but I think it gives us
> a better-than-average shot at Cave Swallow.
> Other species to consider? Well, rarities with a southern/western
> origin might be more likely to appear with this weather. For example,
> Ash-throated Flycatcher is a classic early November arrival under
> these conditions. I'm still waiting for my first CT Franklin's
> Gull...so how about that? I am placing my order now. Thank you.
> Also thanks to the warm weather, we should expect some nice late
> records of neotropical migrants, whether just from lingering
> individuals or reverse migrants.
> Shifting gears from reverse migrants to plain ol' migrants and
> irruptives from the north. Sunday morning should bring a strong
> passerine flight, and this may include some winter finches. There is
> reportedly a massive Common Redpoll flight underway along the St.
> Lawrence River in Quebec, so we could see some vanguards of that
> movement. The first few Bohemian Waxwings have been seen in New
> England. Also, there is an early movement of Snowy Owls that appears
> headed our way in some capacity, and the first week of November is
> prime time for the first of the season to reach Connecticut (and
> nearby).
> I'm also wondering where that Cadillac Mountain Swainson's Hawk from
> last weekend is going to turn up next... It could still be to our
> north with the less-than-ideal hawk migration conditions of this
> week..."
> Nick Bonomo
> Wallingford, CT
> www.shorebirder.com

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