One observer estimated his flock feeding on staghorn sumac berries to be in the range of at least 1,500. Even in Tweed there have been signs, among them the season's first MILBERT'S TORTOISE SHELL on February 21st, albeit dead, hit by a car and then stepped on by a pedestrian, this week's featured photo on the Main Birding Page of the NatureStuff website.

We estimated that we saw between 500 and 600 Warblers and 150 Flycatchers. We were able to only identify 294 Warblers and 92 Flycatchers as many didn't feel like stopping long enough to let us get a good look at them ( look at 1 and 3 fly past ). Again there were no Shorebirds and only 3 Waterfowl species.

An estimated 15 R-t Hummingbirds came through in migration. ALSO, PERHAPS 1000 BLUE JAYS WERE STREAMING THROUGH ALL MORNING. Migrating Raptor Observations: 7 turkey vulture, 2 BALD EAGLE (a 2nd yr. at 0945; an adult at 1115), 4 Osprey, 29 Sharp-shinned, 2 Broad-winged, 1 Red-tailed, 11 Am.Kestrel, 4 Unidentifieds.

PEREGRINE FALCON at Buckhorn Island. 178 COMMON TERNS on Lake Ontario at Fort Niagara, and an estimated 800 COMMON TERNS on Lake Erie at Long Beach. 3 COMMON NIGHTHAWKS over Tonawanda, and 3 WHIP-POOR- WILLS singing on Wilson Road in Wainfleet. PILEATED WOODPECKER on the States Trail at the Reinstein Preserve in Cheektowaga.

An estimated 200 MUTE SWANS were joined this week by two TRUMPETER SWANS on December 6 and six TUNDRA SWANS on December 8. A major freeze and a blitz of hunters at the end of last week and on the weekend chased most of the ducks out of the marsh and Presqu'ile Bay.

A single GREATER SCAUP on the 5th is the first one recorded this spring, offshore the numbers of LONG-TAILED DUCKS and WHITE-WINGED SCOTERS have been hard to estimate in the choppy waters but are probably remaining in numbers consistent with last week.

Two days ago, one observer counted 254 MUTE SWANS from a single vantage point and estimated that he saw at least another 100 elsewhere in the Park. About a dozen TUNDRA SWANS were also present for a few days. GADWALLS have been hanging around the east end of High Bluff Island, and a single NORTHERN SHOVELER was at the east end of Gull Island on Tuesday.

One estimate indicates that there are about 50 GREAT EGRET nests on High Bluff Island, some of which can be observed with a scope from the mainland. There are also BLACK-CROWNED NIGHT-HERON nests there, but they are more difficult to see. On one pass by Sebastopol Island, where they used to nest, three birds were spotted perched in the only tree.

> Numerous hydraulic engineers and other types estimate that ALL of man's activities result in only 3% of the fluctuations in the water level of the Great Lakes. The rest is mother nature. This is despite the water control structures in Chicago, the various canals, and all the water drawn from the Lakes by every other municipality.

Boats and conditions differ by so much that even the most "scientific" approaches can only give you an estimate within plus or minus 10% of the correct value. (Sort of like an election.) However, I've run a few calculations on a prop specification program we used for trawler sized environmental research vessels.