Hello everyone, Here is the latest CEF update. As Sheryl notes below, we’ve been on the Hill all week talking to folks about FY 2017 appropriations. I’ll be at the Pelosi and Becerra meetings, which are actually tomorrow, and the McConnell meeting next week. Also went to a NDD United planning meeting earlier this week which was preceded by a great overview on FY 2017 *and* 2018 budget/approps scenarios from Ellen Nissenbaum and David Reich from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. Sheryl does a nice job below summarizing what we’ve learned from the Hill meetings. From what I’ve heard, the possible scenarios, in order of likelihood, are: an omnibus appropriations bill (one big spending bill for the whole government); a year-long Continuing Resolution (CR), freezing spending at the FY 2016 level (although not really, because for complicated reasons I won’t get into, a handful of education programs that rely in part on advance appropriations — not ours — ends up with a cut in that scenario); a series of “minibuses” which break up an omnibus into parts that are passed separately; or a short-term CR that takes us into March. But I don’t think there is time to do minibuses, and Ellen Nissenbaum (who would know) said at the NDD meeting that there was “no way” a short-term CR would pass in the Senate. So the most likely scenario appears to be omnibus with an outside chance at a year-long CR. On the Senate side, at least, there appears to be a strongly favorable disposition to do an omnibus. But no one can do much more than guess since the outcome of the elections will have some bearing on the choice that is ultimately made. You’ll recall that the House and Senate appropriators planned to freeze Title II adult education funding at the 2016 level in their bills, so whether Congress now goes for an omnibus or a year-long CR may ultimately not matter that much from our perspective. There is some danger that during negotiations, they could cut adult ed funding. They don’t have to follow what was in their bills. I think it’s unlikely a cut would be proposed. But it’s possible, so we need to be vigilant. On the other hand, while a CR would hold our funding at this year’s level (more or less — a small across-the-board cut might be imposed to keep the overall total under the caps), it would also eliminate the good things we liked in the appropriations bills this year — in particular, the restoration of year-round Pell grants will not happen if we end up with a year-long CR. One last note, and this is about Ellen and David’s forecast for FY 2018 and beyond. In short, it looks dire. The caps on spending that are in place already, the increasing squeeze on discretionary funding caused by the ever-expanding mandatory spending side, and the return, next year, of sequestration, means that it’s going to be extremely difficult for any non-defense discretionary program to get more federal funding next year or in the foreseeable future. Even if another budget deal lifts the caps, it wouldn’t be by much, and education programs will continue to take a back seat to health funding in the Labor-HHS-Ed appropriations bills. This will continue to be a problem whoever wins the election. I don’t see any even *remote* scenario in which *significant* new funding for adult ed funding funder Title II is possible in the near future, no matter how good our advocacy is — the opportunity for the champions we cultivate on the Hill to help us is very limited. More from Sheryl below… Jeff > Begin forwarded message: > > From: Sheryl Cohen <cohen@cef.org> > Subject: CEF Update 10.19.16 > Date: October 19, 2016 at 5:29:53 PM EDT > To: CEFMembersList <CEFMembersList@cef.org> > > > Wednesday, October 19, 2016 > > > Dear CEF Members: > > I. Advocacy > > · CEF on the Hill - This week Sarah and I, along with CEF officers and the Hill Teams co-chairs, began a series of Hill meetings to emphasize the need to pass full-year, program by program appropriations measures that invest more for education than the House and Senate Appropriations Committee bills provide. We are talking to staff from both House and Senate Republican and Democratic Leadership and Appropriations Committees. So far we’ve met with the following 8 offices: > 1. Chuck Kieffer (Democratic Staff Director) for the Senate Appropriations Committee under Senator Mikulski; > 2. Mark Laisch and Alex Keenan (Democratic Staff Director) for the Senate Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Subcommittee under Senator Murray; > 3. Mike Gentile with the Senate Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Subcommittee under Senator Blunt; > 4. Claire Sanderson with Senate Majority Whip Cornyn; > 5. Lakeisha Steele with Senate Assistant Democratic Leader Durbin; > 6. Jon Abdnor and Adam Wek with Senate Republican Conference Chair Thune; > 7. Veronica Duron with Senate Democratic Caucus Vice Chair Schumer; and > 8. Rachel Snyder with House Democratic Whip Hoyer. > In addition, we have meetings confirmed for the next week with staff for House Minority Leader Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader McConnell, House Appropriations Committee Republicans, and House Democratic Caucus Chair Becerra. We are still setting up a few more. > > · Using the letter CEF wrote <http://cef.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/09.09.16-CEF-letter-on-CR-FINAL.pdf> to Congress in September, and the charts and tables <http://cef.org/category/charts-and-factsheets/> we’ve circulated, we’re making the following points: > o a Continuing Resolution (CR) is not a freeze at last year’s levels and is already hurting education and workforce training programs; > o full-year funding must be enacted for all programs, with a policy to “leave no bill behind” so that no bill merely provides funding just until March, or has an allocation so low after all others are done that it renders the bill unpassable; > o neither Appropriations Committee-reported Labor-HHS-Education bill, both of which cut both K-12 and higher education funding, are a good starting point; and > o any increase in the discretionary caps should involve equal increases for defense and non-defense spending, and that the Labor-HHS-Education bill should receive a proportional share of any increase. > > · Possible scenarios for Congressional action – Until the election results are known nobody can reliably predict how the appropriations process will unfold. However, we are hearing from both Democrats and Republicans that they do not think the Senate will approve short-term CRs through March, which makes it more likely that full-year funding will be enacted before the new year in one form or another. Behind the scenes negotiations are underway to choose compromise 302(b) allocations for the remaining 11 bills, with action expected immediately when Congress returns the week of November 14. That leaves just enough time, if all goes smoothly, to make programmatic funding decisions by mid-December, when the current CR expires. > > · Some interesting insights: > o A CR is not the desired outcome for many reasons. However, a CR does tend to eliminate or at least vastly limit policy riders that jeopardize passage. > o Not all CRs are created alike. Some freeze funding for everything at last year’s levels and then apply an across-the-board cut to make the total fit under the discretionary caps (this is what the current short-term CR does). Another approach is to let each Appropriations subcommittee include multiple “anomalies” to accommodate increases and offsetting cuts, which makes the CR much more like an omnibus with the starting point at last year’s subcommittee allocation. For example, changes to fund the Every Student Succeeds Act rather than the programs that existed last year could be such anomalies. > o The Senate bills include about $4 billion of budget “adjustments” that would make more money available under the NDD cap. These include rescissions of unused contract authority for highways, some reclassification of what is designated as disaster or emergency funding (and is not covered by the cap), among other more technical changes. Without such adjustments, or without a renegotiated NDD cap, the 2017 bills will include less NDD funding than they did for 2016, which makes it very hard to increase funding for individual programs. > > II. Policy Intelligence and Education News > > · Complaints about student loans - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s student loan ombudsman just released a report <http://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/102016_cfpb_Transmittal_DFA_1035_Student_Loan_Ombudsman_Report.pdf> on the 7,800 complaints on student loan debt collection issues the Bureau received in the last year (most about private loans), along with 3,900 loan servicing complaints in the last six months. Among other findings, the Bureau estimates that of the more than one third of the 650,000 borrowers who rehabilitated a defaulted federal loan in the last year will default for a second time in the next two years. Borrowers face a range of difficulties at every stage of the process of moving from default to enrolling in an income-driven repayment program. The report recommends changes to improve that transition. > > · New student loan debt figures – A new report released by the Institute for College Access & Success shows that the average student loan debt was $30,100 for 2015 graduates from four-year colleges who took out student loans, which was 68% of all 2015 graduates. These students’ average debt rose 4% from the year before. The full report can be found here <http://ticas.org/sites/default/files/u159/classof2015_embargoed.pdf>, and the state-by-state breakdown can be found here <http://ticas.org/posd/map-state-data>. > > · High school graduation rates rise - The White House announced on Monday that high school graduation rates have risen to a record level of 83.2 percent, with increases across demographic groups and the achievement gap shrinking although it still remains. The state by state data is available here <http://static.politico.com/ec/66/9e0103ca4a5795aa38950b4dabbc/state-by-state-high-school-graduation-rates.pdf>. > > III. Events > > · ACG-hosted Member Lunches - ACG is hosting its next member lunch on Wednesday, October 26, the fourth in a series of biweekly lunches for CEF members for the remainder of the fall. These will serve as a way for me, and the ACG team, to get to know each member more personally and what your specific issues are. Please sign up here: Member Lunches Sign Up <https://www.eventbrite.com/e/cef-member-lunches-tickets-27180617960> > > · Upcoming annual membership survey –With the hope that you don’t all have survey-fatigue (after the gala survey and the website survey), we are shortly going to circulate a survey to help assess the past year and plan for next year. > > · Post-election debriefing – Mark your calendars for November 16 from 9-11am for CEF’s post-election “de”briefing on what just happened and what it means. Details on speakers and venue coming soon. > > · Nominations - If you are interested, nominations for next year’s board are due by November 28 to CEF, emailed to Alex Hoffberg at Hoffberg@cef.org <mailto:Hoffberg@cef.org>. > > > My best, > > Sheryl > > > Sheryl V. Cohen, Executive Director > > 1800 M Street, NW > Suite 500 South > Washington, DC 20036 > T: 202-327-8125 > cohen@cef.org <mailto:cohen@cef.org> > www.cef.org <http://www.cef.org/>