This is an attempt at Plagiarizing the title to the Peter O'Toole film, "The Lion in Winter". Bob Griffith in his book. "Blue Water Cruising", noted that the worst storm they were ever in was off the Oregon Coast in winter, about 1972 or thereabouts. They managed to get into an 80 knot blow and broke a portlight, as I recall. Keep in mind that before the mid 70's the weather satellite system was much sparser and primitive than that which we have today. That the coastal vhf weather radio system had similar deficiencies. At that time, it was fairly easy for a serious storm to approach the coast without much warning. Even today, the very worst storms are likely to reach the beach without an accurate prediction preceding it. As I write this here in Portland, we are experiencing high wind gusts, perhaps 50 knots or more and I am about 100 miles inland. We have had about a month of high winds, unheard of rain falls (20 inches in a week, 17 in one night). These rain dumps occurred in a small area, but the larger area also had near record rain. Sometime this week there will be a calmer spell where the wind will shift to the east and will blow offshore. Swell heights should drop into the 6 foot range over a period of several days. The east winds that result from such a situation are pretty erratic in the sense that they are liable to swing back and forth from NE to SE and be enhanced near river entrances. This is not a high pressure rebuild over the ocean, that would most likely result in strong NW winds. The high pressure will be inland. There are a couple of other practical issues which are about to come into play. On Tuesday the 28th, at 8AM the crab fleet can begin laying pots off No. Calif, Oregon and So. Wash. Whether they will be underway before 8AM, I am not sure of. But, sometime shortly thereafter all "H" will break loose as the somewhere 1000 boats head for sea. They can't begin to haul pots until 12:01 am Friday morning. In the meantime because the weather is liable to be very favorable by the 29th, there is liable to be a lot of gear in the water, very soon. I estimate 200,000 pots from San Francisco to Cape Flattery, maybe 300. The crab free tow boat lanes have not always been crab pot free. If there is the usual crowding then some crabbers will be forced to put their pots in the lanes, even though they have no recourse with the tow boat operators when their crab gear is damaged. There are "inshore" crab free lanes north of the Columbia River. What is not obvious and has been lost in the documentation is that the inshore lanes are not reserved until after May 15(this date needs verification for the 2006-7 season). The last factor to take into account is the tide situation. To summarize, at the middle of the week: the flood tide runs from about 2 am/pm until 8. The ebb runs from about 8 am/pm until 2 am/pm. This means the slack highs are about 8 which means that the morning one is a couple hours after sunrise and the evening one is few hours after dark. These times are about an hour earlier or an hour later on Tues. or Thurs. The danger times are during the last half of the ebb, nearing 2 am/pm. These times for high water are very handy as they maximize the amount of daylight that can be obtained to make a passage up or down the coast and still cross the bars in daylight. Overall, there is a little more advantage in all this to make a passage going up the coast, versus making one going down. This balance of factors is entirely dependent on the exact present situation as forecast and could change, even as it actually develops. Mike _____________________________________ Capt. Mike Maurice Beaverton Oregon(Near Portland) e