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Migration Prediction and Strategy

AK
Aidan Kiley
Fri, May 13, 2022 11:58 PM

Dear CT Birders-

What a day filled with Arctic Terns! Many thanks to those who found birds
and provided updates. This type of event has never happened before and may
never happen again. Hopefully a few birds will stick overnight, but
historical storm wisdom suggests that the majority will be gone.

I’m sure many have noticed that this has been a below average May this
year. Pretty few warblers and migrants, due to the N winds the whole month.
Tomorrow and Sunday should be a break from that. I would suggest getting
out early for passerines both days. It’s likely that many birds have been
backed up to our S and will push though tomorrow and Sunday. Fallout
conditions are not a guarantee but very possible.

I would suggest checking smaller spots, as well as spots that are not
crowded with birders. Flocking to East Rock, Hammo, Birdcraft or other
spots is of course fun to socialize, but in the grand scheme of things,
huge numbers of birders at one location is often not productive for
maximizing number of rarities found. A much smaller number of birders at
those locations could turn up nearly the same number of good birds.

Give a smaller spot that you haven’t visited in a while or ever a try.
Spread out and get creative! You may be surprised what you can find! I plan
on trying a bit of that this weekend.

Best of luck out there. Hopefully we can turn up some good migrants and
maybe a rarity of two.

Happy birding!

Aidan Kiley
Fairfield

Dear CT Birders- What a day filled with Arctic Terns! Many thanks to those who found birds and provided updates. This type of event has never happened before and may never happen again. Hopefully a few birds will stick overnight, but historical storm wisdom suggests that the majority will be gone. I’m sure many have noticed that this has been a below average May this year. Pretty few warblers and migrants, due to the N winds the whole month. Tomorrow and Sunday should be a break from that. I would suggest getting out early for passerines both days. It’s likely that many birds have been backed up to our S and will push though tomorrow and Sunday. Fallout conditions are not a guarantee but very possible. I would suggest checking smaller spots, as well as spots that are not crowded with birders. Flocking to East Rock, Hammo, Birdcraft or other spots is of course fun to socialize, but in the grand scheme of things, huge numbers of birders at one location is often not productive for maximizing number of rarities found. A much smaller number of birders at those locations could turn up nearly the same number of good birds. Give a smaller spot that you haven’t visited in a while or ever a try. Spread out and get creative! You may be surprised what you can find! I plan on trying a bit of that this weekend. Best of luck out there. Hopefully we can turn up some good migrants and maybe a rarity of two. Happy birding! Aidan Kiley Fairfield