I didn't follow this whole thread, and we have only done limited analyses of plover/tern data, but Min is correct that there is evidence that fencing seems to help with getting plover chicks out of the nest successfully.  What that means in terms of recruitment to the next generation is far less certain, mostly because we lack good data on post-hatch survival.  Patrick mentioned some differences between CT and elsewhere and I'd like to add one more.  A few years ago we did some experiments with artificial nests (containing commercially-obtained quail eggs) on beaches.  This approach is often used to assess things like predation levels, trampling rates, etc.  In those experiments we found phenomenally high levels of predation on CT beaches.  Artificial nest experiments are probably not ideal for estimating real-nest predation rates (although they are probably better for beach nesting birds than most species), but they are probably pretty good for comparing relative rates between different areas.  The egg predation rates in our study were several times higher than in similar artificial nest experiments conducted on Cape Cod.  I certainly would not want to downplay the need to reduce human disturbance near nests, but I came away from that study convinced that the main problem faced by plovers and terns in this state is the number of crows and mammals (cats, skunks, raccoons, foxes, etc.) on beaches.  Although I cannot be certain why predation rates are so high in CT it is probably a combination of the degree of urbanization around the state's beaches, plus maybe their small size - which tends to concentrate people and thus lead to a higher density of food trash. Chris Chris Elphick Storrs, CT elphick@sbcglobal.net