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Weather Windows

MM
Mike Maurice
Fri, Dec 17, 2004 9:26 PM

I was in phone contact with someone about the PUP forum and our discussion
turned to hitting weather windows.  In a sense this is one of those things
where everybody? believes in them, but the practice of this religion leaves
something to be desired. I used the metaphor of a religion because it
requires a belief in a higher power, than one's self. There are rituals in
the practice, there are holy ones and there are sins.

Now, that you have the topography scouted out, I will get on with the
explanation. For the purposes of this discussion, I will limit this to the
sins;

Pride: assuming things not supported by the weather data, nor warranted by
personal expertise.
Sloth: failure to study. Enjoying the evening instead of planning the future.
Greed: assuming you will inherit the other guy's weather window.
Gluttony: having more data/equipment resources than you can effectively
use, to the detriment of the whole.
Anger: having recognized a mistake in planning, attempting to substitute
emotion for sober reflection.
Envy: wanting your neighbor's electronic toy, as if that would solve your
last remaining problems.
Lust:  basking in the glow of your last calm trip. Think of it as the LAST
calm trip you will ever... make.

The central practical problem in hitting weather windows is going when the
window opens. No procrastination, having everybody on board and whipped to
go.  There are several common major mistakes. Since it is almost impossible
to get a herd of human sheep going in the right direction at the same
moment, you have to plan and actually implement a little ahead of the
opening. In other words, accept that the real window will not be when
predicted, but before or after the expected time. Identify the opening by
real reports from buoys/ships and land reporting stations.

Boats are never perfect, you have weigh the things you have still left
undone against the advantages to be accrued from heading out with an
imperfect but perhaps satisfactory boat. In other words, if you have a
million dollars worth of weather, it trumps a million dollars worth of
boat. You can't expect to be ready unless you have been prepping all along.
It is difficult to get things done at the last minute. Procrastination is
the root of things left undone.

You have to study the opening carefully using all available weather
information, in order to understand how that opening will unfold and how to
use the most likely outcomes, as well as some of the less likely ones. Keep
in mind whether any of the less likely outcomes is unfolding so that you
can take advantage or dodge as necessary.  Believe that the weather
forecast is a Bedtime Fairy Tale for adults and expect reality, to set in.
You will not become proficient at this sort of game, without practice, and
success is in this game, it's own reward.

My crews have this unholy notion that I have this special machine in the
engine room called "mikes super smooth water making machine". Boy are they
in for a surprise someday! In the meantime, I drive them like a herd of
horses through one gate after another. And once in a while they notice the
gate slamming closed, just as we get through. You will have the gate slam
shut in front of you, if you don't use all the available window that is
offered and you will have that happen unless you are at the starting gate
when it opens.

People who delay in using weather windows when they occur, will invariably
end up out in weather windows that are about to or have in fact slammed
shut. The trick is to get going as soon as the tail end of a storm system
has gone through and conditions have laid down enough to operate, to your
satisfaction. After all, what are you waiting for? The next storm?

All this may sound obvious, and yet, I see boats repeatedly delay and delay
before heading out. It is almost a constant occurrence. I trust that some
of this will help you get your crew together and get to sea, at the right
time, each and every time you head out.

Regards,
Mike

Capt. Mike Maurice
Tualatin(Portland), Oregon

I was in phone contact with someone about the PUP forum and our discussion turned to hitting weather windows. In a sense this is one of those things where everybody? believes in them, but the practice of this religion leaves something to be desired. I used the metaphor of a religion because it requires a belief in a higher power, than one's self. There are rituals in the practice, there are holy ones and there are sins. Now, that you have the topography scouted out, I will get on with the explanation. For the purposes of this discussion, I will limit this to the sins; Pride: assuming things not supported by the weather data, nor warranted by personal expertise. Sloth: failure to study. Enjoying the evening instead of planning the future. Greed: assuming you will inherit the other guy's weather window. Gluttony: having more data/equipment resources than you can effectively use, to the detriment of the whole. Anger: having recognized a mistake in planning, attempting to substitute emotion for sober reflection. Envy: wanting your neighbor's electronic toy, as if that would solve your last remaining problems. Lust: basking in the glow of your last calm trip. Think of it as the LAST calm trip you will ever... make. The central practical problem in hitting weather windows is going when the window opens. No procrastination, having everybody on board and whipped to go. There are several common major mistakes. Since it is almost impossible to get a herd of human sheep going in the right direction at the same moment, you have to plan and actually implement a little ahead of the opening. In other words, accept that the real window will not be when predicted, but before or after the expected time. Identify the opening by real reports from buoys/ships and land reporting stations. Boats are never perfect, you have weigh the things you have still left undone against the advantages to be accrued from heading out with an imperfect but perhaps satisfactory boat. In other words, if you have a million dollars worth of weather, it trumps a million dollars worth of boat. You can't expect to be ready unless you have been prepping all along. It is difficult to get things done at the last minute. Procrastination is the root of things left undone. You have to study the opening carefully using all available weather information, in order to understand how that opening will unfold and how to use the most likely outcomes, as well as some of the less likely ones. Keep in mind whether any of the less likely outcomes is unfolding so that you can take advantage or dodge as necessary. Believe that the weather forecast is a Bedtime Fairy Tale for adults and expect reality, to set in. You will not become proficient at this sort of game, without practice, and success is in this game, it's own reward. My crews have this unholy notion that I have this special machine in the engine room called "mikes super smooth water making machine". Boy are they in for a surprise someday! In the meantime, I drive them like a herd of horses through one gate after another. And once in a while they notice the gate slamming closed, just as we get through. You will have the gate slam shut in front of you, if you don't use all the available window that is offered and you will have that happen unless you are at the starting gate when it opens. People who delay in using weather windows when they occur, will invariably end up out in weather windows that are about to or have in fact slammed shut. The trick is to get going as soon as the tail end of a storm system has gone through and conditions have laid down enough to operate, to your satisfaction. After all, what are you waiting for? The next storm? All this may sound obvious, and yet, I see boats repeatedly delay and delay before heading out. It is almost a constant occurrence. I trust that some of this will help you get your crew together and get to sea, at the right time, each and every time you head out. Regards, Mike Capt. Mike Maurice Tualatin(Portland), Oregon