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Tsunami Warnings and Earthquakes

MM
Mike Maurice
Thu, Jan 13, 2005 12:27 AM

There was a fairly large earthquake in the Mid Atlantic Ridge presently
estimated at 6.8 about 8:40 UTC, Jan 12.
The first estimate was 6.0, it took about 3 hours for the revised estimate
of 6.8 to come through. It would appear that estimating quake energy is not
as simply or quick as the news media would make it appear. In the interval,
a really serious quake can initiate a Tsunami that would in fact precede
any effective warning that would come from a simple quake alerting system.
I have been monitoring the BIGQUAKE alerting system for the past 2 weeks
and there have been about 40 alerts for quakes over  5.5. As you may have
noticed there have been no obvious Tsunamis.

This 6.0 and 6.8 business is quite dramatic. An earthquake of 7.0 is
considered the lower level at which a Tsunami is normally generated. The
difference between a 6.0 and a 7,0, if I recall correctly is 10 times the
energy.

Two things I think we can assume from this. The first is that if you are
near the coast and in a low lying area, that any substantial quake that you
can feel should be followed by your heading for higher ground or out to
deep water, at least 100 feet, preferably more.
That real Tsunami warnings can only be indicated by deep water buoys which
have to be placed ahead of time and monitored. The Pacific Ocean is the
only place that has such buoys(DART) at the present time. These buoys are
not placed such that all arbitrary points around the Pacific Rim would
necessarily be able to receive an adequate warning. I assume the present
positioning has been done based on a best estimate of where to place the
buoys in regards to the likely hood of the next Pacific Earthquake that
would generate a Tsunami.

Notice that the DART buoys are located off the Oregon Coast and along the
Alaskan Chain.

The map of DART buoys can be seen at this URL
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Dart/dart.shtml

As part of the http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami-hazard/U.S. National
Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), the Deep Ocean Assessment and
Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) Project is an ongoing effort to maintain and
improve the capability for the early detection and real-time reporting of
tsunamis in the open ocean. Developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine
Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) and operated by NOAA's National Data Buoy
Center (NDBC), DART is essential to fulfilling NOAA's national
responsibility for tsunami hazard mitigation and warnings. Project goals
are the:
* Reduction in the loss of life and property in U.S. coastal communities.
* Elimination of false alarms which result in high economic costs for
unnecessary evacuations.

DART stations have been sited in regions with a history of generating
destructive tsunamis to ensure early detection of tsunamis and to acquire
data critical to real-time forecasts. The 6 buoy operational array shown on
the http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Dart/array.shtmlaccompanying map was
completed in 2001.

Mike

Capt. Mike Maurice
Tualatin(Portland), Oregon

There was a fairly large earthquake in the Mid Atlantic Ridge presently estimated at 6.8 about 8:40 UTC, Jan 12. The first estimate was 6.0, it took about 3 hours for the revised estimate of 6.8 to come through. It would appear that estimating quake energy is not as simply or quick as the news media would make it appear. In the interval, a really serious quake can initiate a Tsunami that would in fact precede any effective warning that would come from a simple quake alerting system. I have been monitoring the BIGQUAKE alerting system for the past 2 weeks and there have been about 40 alerts for quakes over 5.5. As you may have noticed there have been no obvious Tsunamis. This 6.0 and 6.8 business is quite dramatic. An earthquake of 7.0 is considered the lower level at which a Tsunami is normally generated. The difference between a 6.0 and a 7,0, if I recall correctly is 10 times the energy. Two things I think we can assume from this. The first is that if you are near the coast and in a low lying area, that any substantial quake that you can feel should be followed by your heading for higher ground or out to deep water, at least 100 feet, preferably more. That real Tsunami warnings can only be indicated by deep water buoys which have to be placed ahead of time and monitored. The Pacific Ocean is the only place that has such buoys(DART) at the present time. These buoys are not placed such that all arbitrary points around the Pacific Rim would necessarily be able to receive an adequate warning. I assume the present positioning has been done based on a best estimate of where to place the buoys in regards to the likely hood of the next Pacific Earthquake that would generate a Tsunami. Notice that the DART buoys are located off the Oregon Coast and along the Alaskan Chain. The map of DART buoys can be seen at this URL http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Dart/dart.shtml As part of the <http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami-hazard/>U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), the Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) Project is an ongoing effort to maintain and improve the capability for the early detection and real-time reporting of tsunamis in the open ocean. Developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) and operated by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), DART is essential to fulfilling NOAA's national responsibility for tsunami hazard mitigation and warnings. Project goals are the: * Reduction in the loss of life and property in U.S. coastal communities. * Elimination of false alarms which result in high economic costs for unnecessary evacuations. DART stations have been sited in regions with a history of generating destructive tsunamis to ensure early detection of tsunamis and to acquire data critical to real-time forecasts. The 6 buoy operational array shown on the <http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Dart/array.shtml>accompanying map was completed in 2001. Mike Capt. Mike Maurice Tualatin(Portland), Oregon