Re: T&T: New York hurricane
In a message dated 9/3/06 12:38:47 PM, kfredden@verizon.net writes:
Someone was been pulling your leg with that 'information'. Staten Island
most
certainly does not have a mean height of 4' above MSL.
Kevin,
I lived on Staten Island for years. Except for Todt Hill and Grimes Hill and
the former NYC Fresh Kills landfill, Staten Island is very flat. There is a
central spine of high ground but most of the land was formerly a salt or
intertidal marsh. The topography is low-lying with a subsoil of clay and soils
of
sand and silt. In the 19th century much of the land was originally farmland,
either actively farmed or abandoned. Hylan Blvd., the main road running the
length
of the island, floods every time there is a heavy rain and occasionally
during a Spring tide. In the southern and eastern part of the island it is
difficult to keep a basement dry because the level of the ground water is so
high.
Great Kills and most of the Gateway Park area on the island are just a couple
of
feet above sea level. Admittedly there are a few high areas. Todt Hill is one.
In fact it is one of the highest peaks in the area at 400 ft. above sea
level.
I'm not making this stuff up. The following is a quote from NASAs Goddard
Institute:
"The New York Metropolitan Region is a coastal area. Storms and storm surges
have caused millions of dollars worth of damage and continue to stress the
fragile ecosystems in the region. Nor'easters do the most damage to the
metropolitan area -- striking about 1-2 times per year, with severe storms
causing
major flooding every 40-50 years. Hurricanes strike less frequently, but can
also
be severe. Responses funded at the public level include beach nourishment,
rebuilding seaside towns, and rebuilding groins off local beaches.
In addition to sea level rise, global climate change may bring an increase in
either/both the intensity and frequency of storms along the east coast.
Damages to people and infrastructure could increase -- New York City alone has
600
miles of coastline.
New York's infrastructure is closely connected to the coastal areas --
highways, subways, tunnels, sewage, sanitations facilities, power plants and
factories are all found in, on, or adjacent to waterways. Severe flooding with
increased frequency could flood the FDR Drive, sections of East Harlem, Coney
Island
and entire neighborhoods in Staten Island. Almost the entire subway system in
NYC is underground and is vulnerable to flooding as well."
Regardless of what the Mapquest topo shows, I certainly would not want to be
living near the shore if a hurricane was bearing down on New York.
Larry Z
Insurance companies use "experience rating" in their rate calculations.
Question is when was the last devastating hurricane to inundate NYC? Next
the actuaries try to estimate when the next one is likely to be and set
rates accordingly.
Had there been one contrarian insurance company who lowered rates in Florida
this year rather than buy into the "17 named storms" forecast, they would
have made a bundle. Clearly there are another 6 weeks to go before we are
home free, but you've got to admit it's looking pretty good. In 6 days
we'll know more about tropical depression #6.
Elevations for federal flood insurance in North Carolina reference the 100
year flood mark for example which seems to suggest an underwriting boundary
referencing possibility vs probability.
I stand on my argument that funding to keep the electricity on in the Bronx
on a normal day would be a good investment addressing an "experienced"
probability, worrying about the tsunami from the UK probably isn't a good
use of time, capital and technology.
I did enjoy the academics going at it last night over what really killed the
dinosaurs and whose theory was hogwash...
Regards....
Phil Rosch
Old Harbor Consulting
M/V "Curmudgeon" MT44 TC
Currently lying Bond Creek, NC
"Next the actuaries try to estimate when the next one is likely to be and set
rates accordingly."
If this were even remotely true then why do they have to jack their rates up so high after every storm? Where's all that money they collected before hand that was invested to make them more money.
trawlerphil trawlerphil@earthlink.net wrote:
Insurance companies use "experience rating" in their rate calculations.
Question is when was the last devastating hurricane to inundate NYC? Next
the actuaries try to estimate when the next one is likely to be and set
rates accordingly.
Had there been one contrarian insurance company who lowered rates in Florida
this year rather than buy into the "17 named storms" forecast, they would
have made a bundle. Clearly there are another 6 weeks to go before we are
home free, but you've got to admit it's looking pretty good. In 6 days
we'll know more about tropical depression #6.
Elevations for federal flood insurance in North Carolina reference the 100
year flood mark for example which seems to suggest an underwriting boundary
referencing possibility vs probability.
I stand on my argument that funding to keep the electricity on in the Bronx
on a normal day would be a good investment addressing an "experienced"
probability, worrying about the tsunami from the UK probably isn't a good
use of time, capital and technology.
I did enjoy the academics going at it last night over what really killed the
dinosaurs and whose theory was hogwash...
Regards....
Phil Rosch
Old Harbor Consulting
M/V "Curmudgeon" MT44 TC
Currently lying Bond Creek, NC
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(SNIP) If this were even remotely true then why do they have to jack their
rates up so high after every storm? Where's all that money they collected
before hand that was invested to make them more money. Thomas
Multi-line companies use what is called a "combined ratio". If a company
has a combined ratio of 110 it means for every dollar of premium income they
bring in, they pay out $1.10 in claims which means their financial division
needs to sweeten the pot considerably to make a profit. It's easier to
understand the process on the life side of the business. Over time, people
are living longer which affects the experience rating for things like
annuities where you bet you'll live longer than "average".
Rating agencies like A.M. Best weigh the financial health of insurance. A.
M. Best's rating is assigned after evaluating a company's financial
condition and operating performance both in qualitative and quantitative
terms. Quantitative evaluation examines (1) profitability, (2) leverage, (3)
liquidity, (4) reserve adequacy, and (5) reinsurance. Qualitative evaluation
is based on (1) spread of risk, (2) soundness and appropriates of
reinsurance, (3) quality and diversification of assets, (4) adequacy of
policy reserves, and (5) adequacy of surplus, (6) capital structure, and (7)
management experience. Ratings are reviewed both on an annual and a
quarterly basis.
The rating scale uses letter grades ranging from A++ (Superior), the
highest, to F (In Liquidation), the lowest. The letter grade can also have a
modifier that qualifies it. The A++ highest rating is based on a company's
favorable comparison of profitability, leverage, and liquidity with industry
norms; favorable experience from mortality, lapses, and expenses; quality
and diversification of investment portfolio; strong policy reserves and a
surplus to risk ratio that is above that for the average life insurance
company. Also examined are the amount and soundness of its reinsurance and
the competence and experience of management.
Therefore, what insurance companies do in terms of establishing rates is
usually driven by the same things the rating agencies use. If Florida gets
hammered by 4 hurricanes in one year, you might find an insurance company
with dangerously low reserves, a problem they will attempt to correct as
quickly as possible.
The reason I only carry liability is I believe that too many boaters simply
don't care about making their boats able to survive a hurricane. You see
boats in marinas with single dock lines, sails and biminis still up. The
attitude is "why bother, I have insurance". As the actual experience of
insurance companies gets worse, they react by raising the rates, which is my
point about "experience rating".
Al Golden can chime in here if I'm not making sense. Insurance companies
aren't always the bad guys.
Regards....
Phil Rosch
Old Harbor Consulting
M/V "Curmudgeon" MT44 TC
Currently lying Bond Creek, NC