Re: [PUP] Being prepared (for everything ?)
Bob brings up a great point. One of our groups at my day job does some work on "Incident Response" for hospitals. Part of the preparedness for large scale disasters as well as more routine patient surges is something called a Hazard Vulnerability Assessment (HVA) that takes into account both generic hazards, but also hazards unique to a facility e.g. regional natural disaster types or proximity, certain industrial hazards, etc. These are used to prioritize the risk mitigation plan.
It would interesting to see an HVA for PUP. As Scott noted it would certainly take into account cruising region, but also attributes of the vessel and crew, etc.
As a side note when we do an HVA for our own internal technical operations, we often find that our efforts are mis-prioritized and all the stuff the vendors promote for disaster recovery and continuity of operations (coop) address lower risk vulnerabilities because they are things they can sell you a widget to address. In this case, the highest risks are usually direct human error and "process error". The second being where people followed the plan, but the plan didn't take into account certain corner cases or had common short cuts. These types of risks are much harder to address because they require continuous vigilance not just writing a check.
----- Original Message ----
From: bob england bob_england@hotmail.com
I wonder just what the statistics are on being struck by lightning at sea.
Hi PUPers,
Mark the "PUP Hazard Vulnerability Assessment (HVA)" is an interesting
approach to answer the being prepared for everything question. Doing
accurate risk and failure assessment can be tough as we go through the
mental calculus to determine what is "safe". This would indeed be an
interesting project to quantify various risks aboard a passage making power
boat.
As you mention it is easy to get it wrong. Things can be over or under
emphasized. It is often not trivial to understand why these mistakes can
happen. Take a look at this essay about "The Psychology of Security":
http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram-0702a.html. It is a long read and it
does not even mention boating. But it does attempt to summarize how humans
assess risk and fear. Anyone doing some Passagemaking has to come to terms
with risks and fear, as well as balance comfort and overall effort.
There is a lot to consider for going out there in a "safe" way, and people
will have different tolerances. Appropriate gear can make all the
difference. The right procedures can mitigate consequences around risky
things. For example having someone on watch to monitor gauges in a pilot
house and do regular engine room checks can mitigate a serious engine
overheating risk. Also things like MOB drills or practice parachute anchor
deployment can improve the handling of situations when you need to do them
for real.
Having the right tools and spare parts to fix likely trouble spots helps
mitigate problems. Redundancy and more than one way to do something can also
help. And of course the right knowledge and experience contributes
tremendously. A diesel engine mechanic will likely have little fear of
engine failures. Of course they may have trepidation around navigation
electronics, high voltage, septic systems, weather forecasting, etc. It can
increase risk if you go too far down one path of expertise for the sake of
others. You need to be pretty rounded to get the right balance.
As we get to specifics we can look at systems such as propulsion. It is made
up of fuel, engine, transmission, shaft, prop, and controls. And of course
each of those sub-components is made up of further sub components such air
intakes, pumps, coolants, lubrication, etc. etc. Combing through a boat from
stem to stern will find many systems. Some are more of a hazard to fail in
some situations than other others. Some gracefully fail, others
catastrophically fail. Many systems are there for luxury. Understanding
contingency and how far you want to go to handle a problem is one of the big
tradeoffs in boating.
Anyway, being prepared for everything is impossible. One falling meteorite
the size of a car will ruin anyone's day. I assert being prepared for likely
mishaps and discomfort with a certain risk level is in the realm of
possibility for smaller power boats crossing oceans.
--
Eric Grab
-----Original Message-----
From: Mark [mailto:mark424x@yahoo.com] wrote:
Hazard Vulnerability Assessment (HVA) that takes into account both generic
hazards, but also hazards unique to a facility e.g. regional natural
disaster types or proximity, certain industrial hazards, etc. These are
used to prioritize the risk mitigation plan.
It would interesting to see an HVA for PUP. As Scott noted it would
certainly take into account cruising region, but also attributes of the
vessel and crew, etc.
Eric:
I noticed your posting.
Aren't you leaving for a Pacific Crossing in the next few weeks? I would be
very curious to have you give a quick summary of your upcoming voyage.
- Are you traveling alone?
- What route are you taking?
- Who will be onboard?
- Will you be sending out daily trip reports?
- Did you hire a weather router?
Ken Williams
Nordhavn68.com
Hi Ken and PUPers,
We are indeed leaving in the next few weeks. The departure window is between
April 14 and May 1. We have not had a chance to post much about it on our
blog, but you can be sure we have been really busy!
Good set of questions. Here are the answers:
-
Alone? We are going alone, but there are several boats doing the Pacific
crossing aka "Puddle Jump". A sailboat currently in Ensenada might be
leaving the same time as us. Also another Nordhavn 43 is coming from
Galapagos about the same time as well. While unlikely we will sight them
during the passage, we might get pretty close. And of course we are looking
forward to meeting up with other Puddle Jumpers in the Marquesas. -
Route? Using Visual Passage Planner our current plans are for a pretty
direct route from San Diego to Nuka Hiva. Plug in the middle setting for
speed and wave height and that gives you our planned route. Of course as it
gets closer we may adjust to due weather. Essentially during the first few
days we head more south before we turn westward. -
Who? The crew for the 19-20 day passage will be me, my wife Christi, and
friend Richard. Richard happens to own Nordhavn 43-14, so he is quite
familiar with the 43 to say the least. We have been trying out a 4 hour
watch schedules and so far so good, so we will see how that works for the
long passage. -
Daily reports? For e-mail we have SSB Sailmail and Iridium sat phone. We
hope to send out reports periodically during the passage. And we will be
regularly calling a couple people on land to inform them of our progress. We
will also try the SSB nets. We have our HAM licenses so maybe some HAM
contacts too. While we had to pass the Morse code test back when we got our
license you do not now, so get those HAM sets going. -
Weather router? Yes, we are going with OMNI. We will get weather fax via
SSB, weather router reports via e-mail and voice, and weather data files
through the e-mail systems.
And here is some more information people might be interested in:
We plan to use about 1000 gallons out of our 1250 capacity on the 2950 nm
passage from San Diego to Nuka Hiva. At 1500 rpm we burn 2 gallons an hour
and plan for a conservative average of SOG of 6 knots with prevailing winds
and currents. Of course we might slow down or speed up depending on how
things go.
We have a sextant, a few accurate watches, and paper charts to help back up
the electronic goodies. We have a Faraday cage which contains a GPS, VHF, a
watch, and calculator. Of course there are lots of other things. And then
there have been the training and classes. It is a quite the large project to
make it all happen.
If anyone has any questions let me know. Ask here, or consider using our
blog listed below. Maybe a fun and useful game right now is "What did Kosmos
forget?".
Anyway, I am heading home from the office to install some stereo speakers in
the pilothouse. You got to have music right? :-)
--
Eric Grab
Kosmos http://kosmos.liveflux.net/blog (Nordhavn 43-18)
San Diego, CA
-----Original Message-----
From: Ken Williams [mailto:kenw@seanet.com]
Sent: Friday, March 23, 2007 11:44 AM
To: eric@liveflux.net; 'Passagemaking Under Power List'
Subject: Pacific Crossing
Eric:
I noticed your posting.
Aren't you leaving for a Pacific Crossing in the next few weeks? I would be
very curious to have you give a quick summary of your upcoming voyage.
- Are you traveling alone?
- What route are you taking?
- Who will be onboard?
- Will you be sending out daily trip reports?
- Did you hire a weather router?
Ken Williams
Nordhavn68.com
Eric said: "...The crew for the 19-20 day passage will be me, my wife
Christi, and friend Richard...."
Eric:
A 19-20 day passage with just three people? Personally, I'd consider that
too few, and try to find an extra crew member or two (or, three). I once did
a four day passage with just Roberta and I, and it was pretty grueling. If
someone gets sick or hurt you are going to have a rough time of it.
I'm surprised your insurance company isn't requiring more crew.
-Ken Williams
Nordhavn68.com
On Fri, March 23, 2007 8:40 pm, Ken Williams wrote:
A 19-20 day passage with just three people?
It would be easier to have 4 people. But we think we will be fine with 3.
We are using http://www.imiscorp.net/Jackline.htm for insurance. Contact
Pat, she was great. We can do passages with 2 people. We generally will
have 3-4 people on passages, we might do some with just the two of us.
There are so many scenarios and possibilities on a passage. We can plan
and hope. You never know when you will have to dig deep and test your
limits of endurance. I do think when major systems are working it helps
you save up for when you do have handle trouble.
--
Eric
I did Roatan to Seattle last year in about 40 days, 30 at sea, with three
people, no problem.
Hal
-----Original Message-----
It would be easier to have 4 people. But we think we will be
fine with 3.
We are using http://www.imiscorp.net/Jackline.htm for
insurance. Contact Pat, she was great. We can do passages
with 2 people. We generally will have 3-4 people on passages,
we might do some with just the two of us.