Arild,
It's not that I distrust electronics through inexperience. I was a radio
hacker when the term referred to building vacuum tube circuits on a
breadboard with hand wound coils and was a computer nerd when computers were
primarily collections of Nixie gas tubes and memory consisted of mercury
delay lines. I also was a senior member of the technical staff at both RCA
and Bell Labs and was responsible for much of the systems analysis that went
into the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo space craft. And, as a Canadian you
should appreciate this, I was responsible for the cockpit instrumentation of
the late lamented Avro CF 105.
In all those years I learned two important lessions. One is that electronics
do not degrade gracefully, the second is that the more things you have series
connected in a system, the greater the liklihood of something going wrong.
After the burn in period, electronic devices fail catastrophically with a
random periodicity. They work perfectly and then they stop, usually with no
warning. MTBF estimates are a statistical concept based on the performance of
a sample of devices. They cannot be used to predict the lifetime of a
specific unit.
In contrast, most mechanical devices fail gracefully. Performance degrades
from an optimum level until it is no longer acceptable. Mechanical failures
usually give ample warning and the opportunity to take corrective action.
Thus a fuel blockage in a trawler rarely stops an engine cold. As the filter
clogs the engine runs slower and/or rougher. A bad gearbox makes noise. A
bent shaft vibrates, etc. Steering becomes loose and sloppy. Few mechanical
failures stop the boat entirely
Now an electrically controlled engine compounds the problem. We add the
spectre of unpredictable electronic failure to the inevitable wear and tear
of the mechanical components. The new compound failure probability is the
electronic failure rate TIMES the mechanical failure rate. Adding components
in series ALWAYS increases the probability of failure. You must put
components in parallel to decrease systerm failure.
Finally about the problem of risk. It is true that when my wife and I travel
together we increase the risk of total family catastrophe. In fact I know
husbands and wives who never travel together for fear of leaving children
orphans. Some pretty convincing evidence shows that people are willing to
tolerate participative risks 1000 times greater than non-participative risks
where they have no feeling of control. I live about 4 miles from the Indian
Point atomic energy plant. Nearby residents approve of the plant because it's
assessed valuation pays a substantial part of their household taxes.
Obviously they are in a participative risk situation. Every Spring, at Earth
Day, there is a protest at the gates of the plant by hundreds of residents of
more distant areas who fear the potential of a Three Mile Island disaster. A
number of the protesters arrive by motorcycle, apparently ignoring the fact
that the ride to the plant exposes them to a risk of death or dismemberment
hundreds of times greater than living next to the plant their entire lives.
My wife and I feel that the benefit of togetherness on a cruise outweighs the
potential risk. Besides our children are now self supporting and out of the
house. But we generally cruise to places out of easy reach of most towboat
and repair services so we try to minimize our personal risk by having the
most reliable boat we can. I even have sails to get me home if the engine
fails. Why subject ourselves to the added potential failure of electronically
controlled systems.
Regards,
Larry Z