Here is the latest Satelite report out of Ohio State University
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/
or
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/pacific/advisories/011221030
0.Guam
that back up Bob Austin's last post. Note the 72 hour prediction. My map
shows Guam's location at 13.26N 144.44E We might be seeing pictures of
Guam on the evening news shortly.
Also, Thanks to the list for recent help in deciphering some of this reports
codes.
Rex C Ott
M/V ZEUS
Preston WA
<!--StartFragment-->468
WTPN31 PGTW 210300
-
TYPHOON 31W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- NEAR 9.1N0 158.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N0 158.2E6
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 10.0N1 156.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 10.8N9 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 11.6N8 151.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 12.3N6 149.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 13.7N1 145.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 9.3N2 157.7E0.
TYPHOON 31W (FAXAI) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE WARNING INTENSITY
OF 75 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT
(T4.5) FROM JTWC AND 90 KT (T5.0) FROM AFWA. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD
DOWN SLIGHTLY SINCE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO
CATCH UP WITH THE RAPIDLY CHANGING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. TY 31W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210000Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2, 211500Z9, 212100Z6
AND 220300Z7.//
Here is the latest Satelite report out of Ohio State University
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/
or
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/pacific/advisories/011221030
0.Guam
that back up Bob Austin's last post. Note the 72 hour prediction. My map
shows Guam's location at 13.26N 144.44E We might be seeing pictures of
Guam on the evening news shortly.
Also, Thanks to the list for recent help in deciphering some of this reports
codes.
Rex C Ott
M/V ZEUS
Preston WA
<!--StartFragment-->468
WTPN31 PGTW 210300
1. TYPHOON 31W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- NEAR 9.1N0 158.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N0 158.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 10.0N1 156.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 10.8N9 154.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 11.6N8 151.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 12.3N6 149.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 13.7N1 145.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 9.3N2 157.7E0.
TYPHOON 31W (FAXAI) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE WARNING INTENSITY
OF 75 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT
(T4.5) FROM JTWC AND 90 KT (T5.0) FROM AFWA. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD
DOWN SLIGHTLY SINCE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO
CATCH UP WITH THE RAPIDLY CHANGING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. TY 31W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210000Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2, 211500Z9, 212100Z6
AND 220300Z7.//