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Imperfection in the face of the Perfect Storm

MM
Mike Maurice
Thu, Dec 21, 2006 7:39 PM

I recall now that I intended to write up something about my transit from
Hong Kong to Columbia River last summer, in regards to Typhoons.

The passage was made in July and as you may recall Typhoon season is
anytime there is a Typhoon. Which in plain english means there is no
safe month. In the not so distant past, transiting in small and slow
boats in Typhoon country in Typhoon season was a very risky venture.
Today the the risk is much different, but the consequences can be just
as deadly.

To summarize the weather forecasting situation. Due to the number and
quality of the satellites whirling around the globe it is virtually
impossible for a tropical storm to get started without being noticed.
The forecasting models are much more accurate and the chances of
becoming entangled with a big, bad Typhoon are very low. But, and here
is the caveat: there is little room for mistakes.

Getting down to cases. When we left Hong Kong there was a Tropical
Storm(TS) in motion east of the Phillipines. It was slow moving but
quite dangerous and it basically followed us all the way to Northern
Japan. To be more specific: it hit the Island of Jeju(So. Korea) about 4
days after we left there and the remnants, which consisted of clouds,
rain and some moderate winds engulfed us at the Island of Hokkaido, the
last big island of Japan. The overall time involved covered a period of
about 2 weeks and over 2 thousand miles.

The fact is that we never had to take any particular action to avoid
getting hurt by this storm, except to keep a constant eye on it. But, it
is worth some study to consider what steps we might have been forced to
take if it had become a close quarters threat. And this is where things
get real interesting.

Even if you buy all the NIMA charts or the copies from say, Bellingham
Chart printers; the level of detail that you are likely to have for the
entire route from Hong Kong to Northern Japan is not nearly as good as
that you can access for the US Coastline. This is partly due to the
number of countries involved, their sensitive security concerns and last
but not least the intricate, ruggged coastline along the route.

The charts available for mainland China are sparse, then there is
Taiwan, So. Korea and Japan. The Japanese are unlikely to behead you for
some infraction of their rules, but they can be mighty strict if they
want to be. It is real difficult to find the lowest price product like
for say fuel, in any of these countries. As a consequence it is
difficult to identify the best place to head for shelter if a storm
threatens.

To put it bluntly, there is no thorough small boat cruising guide with a
list of harbors, marinas, supplies, clearance locations, phone numbers,
etc. It's not that you can't work your way through all this, it's just
that the lack of information leaves a lot to be desired. At the present
time the internet is probably the best source, although the relevant
information is widely scattered.

I am presently reviewing the tactics we used on this trip with the
objective of making improvements where feasible.

More later.

Regards,
Mike

I recall now that I intended to write up something about my transit from Hong Kong to Columbia River last summer, in regards to Typhoons. The passage was made in July and as you may recall Typhoon season is anytime there is a Typhoon. Which in plain english means there is no safe month. In the not so distant past, transiting in small and slow boats in Typhoon country in Typhoon season was a very risky venture. Today the the risk is much different, but the consequences can be just as deadly. To summarize the weather forecasting situation. Due to the number and quality of the satellites whirling around the globe it is virtually impossible for a tropical storm to get started without being noticed. The forecasting models are much more accurate and the chances of becoming entangled with a big, bad Typhoon are very low. But, and here is the caveat: there is little room for mistakes. Getting down to cases. When we left Hong Kong there was a Tropical Storm(TS) in motion east of the Phillipines. It was slow moving but quite dangerous and it basically followed us all the way to Northern Japan. To be more specific: it hit the Island of Jeju(So. Korea) about 4 days after we left there and the remnants, which consisted of clouds, rain and some moderate winds engulfed us at the Island of Hokkaido, the last big island of Japan. The overall time involved covered a period of about 2 weeks and over 2 thousand miles. The fact is that we never had to take any particular action to avoid getting hurt by this storm, except to keep a constant eye on it. But, it is worth some study to consider what steps we might have been forced to take if it had become a close quarters threat. And this is where things get real interesting. Even if you buy all the NIMA charts or the copies from say, Bellingham Chart printers; the level of detail that you are likely to have for the entire route from Hong Kong to Northern Japan is not nearly as good as that you can access for the US Coastline. This is partly due to the number of countries involved, their sensitive security concerns and last but not least the intricate, ruggged coastline along the route. The charts available for mainland China are sparse, then there is Taiwan, So. Korea and Japan. The Japanese are unlikely to behead you for some infraction of their rules, but they can be mighty strict if they want to be. It is real difficult to find the lowest price product like for say fuel, in any of these countries. As a consequence it is difficult to identify the best place to head for shelter if a storm threatens. To put it bluntly, there is no thorough small boat cruising guide with a list of harbors, marinas, supplies, clearance locations, phone numbers, etc. It's not that you can't work your way through all this, it's just that the lack of information leaves a lot to be desired. At the present time the internet is probably the best source, although the relevant information is widely scattered. I am presently reviewing the tactics we used on this trip with the objective of making improvements where feasible. More later. Regards, Mike