For quite some time I have been trying to coax myself into writing about this topic of heavy weather survival. For some purely personal reasons as well as procrastination, I have noticed that I can't seem to get started. This subject is a little like Pandora's Box. There is a light in it and I am not sure that I want anyone else peeking. After all, if there ever was a voyeur, then a seaman must be the ultimate. In that, every seaman wants to have a peek at the other guys mistakes and tricks, but heaven help the fellow who wants the peek. Then there is the issue of whether I want anyone else to have a glimmer at what has taken me some 40 years to piece together, and since every seaman has an opinion I can be sure of getting at least some mail informing me, what an idiot I have become. The idiot business comes under the heading of "been there, done that". I have read most of the books on this subject over the years, and recently I have made it a point to read them over again. The best of the bunch is Heavy Weather Sailing (Adlard Coles), the most recent edition having been done by Peter Bruce. I have some faults with the book, but it still comes out near the top, even after reading all the others through. HWSC summarizes the tank testing with sailboat models that has been done, with and without drags(small to large), the real world reports from various accidents and what it boils down to is that capsizes are easier to induce than most people realize and that being caught broadside on to a breaking wave, is THE way to get the job done. There is a separate subject of vessel handling which naturally comes up in such a topic and I don't think I am going to address that for now. Partially because handling is what you do, when you can, before you get near the edge of what is survivable. The discussion for the moment is about "ultimate survivability". Heavy Weather Sailing, Coles(HWSC) forms the basis for the following comments. For the moment, I am going to ignore the issue of simple damage from impact of waves, breaking or otherwise. If you concentrate on keeping the hull upright, no capsizing or pitch poling, and the boat does not suffer debilitating damage, then you should survive. HWSC demonstrates that there is no absolute way to prevent capsizing, if the boat is caught while broadside. That drags, changes in keel, ballast, etc., will not prevent capsizing if the breaking waves become large enough. There is no drag, or keel configuration or increase or decrease in ballast or placement that will provide proof positive against capsize, as the breaking wave size passes 35% of length overall (LOA) and at 55% the chances of avoiding capsize begin to vanish. Are these numbers realistic? They were derived from tank testing and are not the end of the debate. But for our purposes, without better tests, they at least provide a simple rule of thumb from which to estimate. Obviously, longer boats have better chances. But, greater beam although it gives better initial AND ultimate stability; if the vessel is overturned, wider beam increases the time to return upright and may even preclude that from happening. Ballast deep down(spread out from the center of gravity) and sturdy masts, but not too tall provide mass which has a beneficial impact on inertia (resistance to rolling/twisting) and tends to help prevent the boat from being capsized. If you have a power boat, you may not have anything resembling a mast, so factor that into your thinking. Now if you do the math, you will notice that a 60 foot boat is in danger, at wave heights of 20 some feet, of being capsized(breaking waves, remember), and at about 35 feet high the danger is acute. A vessel of half the length(30ft) is in danger at 10 feet and in serious at 17 feet. These numbers seem reasonable to me based on my own personal experience. So, now that you know about being caught broadside, it's time to consider how to keep from getting there. If conditions are approaching the danger level then it is time to set the boat up so that either the bow or the stern is oriented into the approaching, breaking waves. This is where the use of drags has a place. The choice of bow on or stern on will be very vessel dependent. The factors to keep in mind are structural vulnerability, crew vulnerability and steerage. In most boats, bow on has the advantage of more structural strength, the crew is better protected, but in order to have steerage may require some headway, which may be very undesirable. Stern on puts the rudder at risk, if exposed during a heads down plunge where it might come near to the surface. But, it has the advantage that if you can maintain some headway, you can run off and perhaps even steer around breakers that come too near. Crew fatigue has to be factored in if any tactic requires constant or even intermittent attention, the help for instance, from anyone with a functioning brain. For the sake of clearness, I refer to all drag devices, whether drogues, parachutes or whatever as just "drag devices". There are many types and they each have their strengths and weakness. I don't intend to delve into that very deeply. It is a whole subject unto itself. In some respects there are drag devices and the only difference is the amount of drag each creates and a very simple sense, the drag is all that counts ( I expect some howling over this). If you are going to lie broadside to the waves and wind and use a drag device to haul the vessel's head or stern up to the waves, the drag device should be sized to provide that level which it takes to do the job. Obviously, if wind is the biggest component then the drag device will have to be sized to compensate for the wind, and obviously that can vary enormously(by the square of the wind speed). If the wind departs from the wave direction then you will have to take this into account and vary the amount of drag and it's placement (varying the bridle), to keep the boat properly oriented. In any seaway the vessel's speed and heading should be adjusted to fit the intended track and at the same time provide a ride, roll and pitch, which gains the most in terms of handling/stability. This means that you change course or speed, often times only a few knots or degrees to keep the roll and pitch to acceptable levels for the conditions that exist at the time and in the immediate future. The future means that you must consider the possibility of a wave or series of waves coming from a direction other than the present dominant direction. I suppose you want to know how know how to calculate the odds of that happening? Summarizing what is presently thought to be the factors in predicting waves out of the blue. In order of what I think is most likely. A circular revolving (tropical) storm, also known as a hurricane, etc. Assuming you are in one. Waves from a far away storm entering the present wave field. Waves generated by local activity resulting from gustiness, well above the average wind speed. Gustiness is often not from the predominate wind direction. Being in an area of known current exceeding about 1/4 knot and running against the waves, which if there is any appreciable wind, it will eventually provide you. There are a couple of fairly minor tactical considerations which you don't want to forget. Any of this boisterousness that should occur in shallow water (less than 1/2 the wavelength of the longest waves), is sure to be added to your misery and problems. (For 10 second waves, figure about 150 feet of water and for 20 second stuff figure about 400 feet of water). This means avoiding passing over shoals, reefs, sea mounts and offshore banks. Not all of these fun spots are marked on the charts. All of this business will be hampered by darkness and if possible any outside preparations should be taken while it is still light. Drag devices will not prevent capsizes if the boat is broadside on, if the wave is high enough, but they can be effective while running off, at slow speed with the drag holding the stern up and keeping the boat from taking off and surfing. If you get to the point where you have no one able to assist the boat in avoiding the breakers by steering, either bow or stern on, then you will have to set the boat up with a drag device to help the situation as best you can. In most cases if you have not prepared the drag system for ease of deployment, tested it yourself and placed for dropping, by the time conditions reach the extreme you will find you can not manage to use it in any event. If you expect conditions to last for any length of time, it is doubtful that any ordinary line can be prevented from chafing thru; then you should have rigged chain where it passes overboard the hull. Some enquiring mind is probably wondering if the drag will prevent a pitch pole(PP), going end over end? The probable answer, is yes and no. It depends and as you can imagine from the above and if you read HWSC over you can get feel for what it would take to help prevent that from happening. A PP won't happen unless the boat becomes pointed straight down and the stern passes over the pivot point. Any effect which tends to keep the stern moving slower than the bow is going to prevent? this from happening and a drag is just the tool. In which case, you cannot allow it to fail. I have thought a lot about resolving all the factors of weather into one small compact "unified theory of weather", similar to Einstein's failed attempt to unify the General Theory and the Special Theory of Relativity into one Grand Solution. There is a far better chance of the latter than the former ever happening. But, my seaman's mind chafes at trying to bring order and cohesiveness to what at times seems like and may actually approach, utter chaos! Big, bad storms eat little boats and there is no such thing as a big enough boat. You can see the outlines of what needs to be done and avoided to arrive safely after an encounter with more storm than you ever wanted to learn about. The details and the doing are all up to you and many people have. Since I don't have time to write the definitive book on this subject and since if I did it would be as unrealistic to expect it to be accepted as such, any more than going to sea is a realistic way to be completely safe; I leave whatever I should have included here for some future burst of manic activity. Heavy Weather is an excellent read, borrow it from the library. Mike Capt. Mike Maurice Wilsonville, Oregon (Portland).