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Cerulean Warbler Question

PC
paul cianfaglione
Mon, Oct 3, 2011 4:57 PM

I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16).
Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community?

Paul Cianfaglione
Canton

Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats.
http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf

The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most
precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding
Bird Survey.

The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant
concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean
warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue
another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is
unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those.
Connecticut

Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state.
BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01
birds/route.
BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two
populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam.
Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier
1994, p.322-323).
State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory
Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in
Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm.,
12 August 1996).
Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage
Program.

I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16). Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community? Paul Cianfaglione Canton Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats. http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding Bird Survey. The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those. Connecticut Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state. BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01 birds/route. BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam. Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier 1994, p.322-323). State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm., 12 August 1996). Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage Program.
DF
David F Provencher
Mon, Oct 3, 2011 5:14 PM

Wow, that is an interesting set of numbers. Considering CT has roughly 3,000 square miles of forest (as of 2010), and not all forest is ideal for Acadian Flycatchers, those numbers imply a density of more than 3 Acadian Flycatchers per square mile of CT forest. Reports from birders, but mainly my own experience in hiking hundreds of miles per year in CT, do not support such a density. I believe I encountered only three total while hiking many forested locations in CT this past summer. In my twenty plus years of birding in CT I have not encountered that density level over a significant area of forest. I would very much be interested in the bases used for that numeric statement.

Dave

-----Original Message-----
From: ctbirds-bounces@lists.ctbirding.org [mailto:ctbirds-bounces@lists.ctbirding.org] On Behalf Of paul cianfaglione
Sent: Monday, October 03, 2011 12:58 PM
To: Ctbirds Ctbirdslists
Subject: [CT Birds] Cerulean Warbler Question

I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16).
Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community?

Paul Cianfaglione
Canton

Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats.
http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf

The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most
precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding
Bird Survey.

The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant
concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean
warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue
another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is
unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those.
Connecticut

Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state.
BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01
birds/route.
BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two
populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam.
Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier
1994, p.322-323).
State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory
Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in
Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm.,
12 August 1996).
Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage
Program.


This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut.
For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org
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Wow, that is an interesting set of numbers. Considering CT has roughly 3,000 square miles of forest (as of 2010), and not all forest is ideal for Acadian Flycatchers, those numbers imply a density of more than 3 Acadian Flycatchers per square mile of CT forest. Reports from birders, but mainly my own experience in hiking hundreds of miles per year in CT, do not support such a density. I believe I encountered only three total while hiking many forested locations in CT this past summer. In my twenty plus years of birding in CT I have not encountered that density level over a significant area of forest. I would very much be interested in the bases used for that numeric statement. Dave -----Original Message----- From: ctbirds-bounces@lists.ctbirding.org [mailto:ctbirds-bounces@lists.ctbirding.org] On Behalf Of paul cianfaglione Sent: Monday, October 03, 2011 12:58 PM To: Ctbirds Ctbirdslists Subject: [CT Birds] Cerulean Warbler Question I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16). Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community? Paul Cianfaglione Canton Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats. http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding Bird Survey. The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those. Connecticut Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state. BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01 birds/route. BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam. Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier 1994, p.322-323). State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm., 12 August 1996). Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage Program. _______________________________________________ This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut. For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This electronic message contains information which may be legally confidential and/or privileged and does not in any case represent a firm ENERGY COMMODITY bid or offer relating thereto which binds the sender without an additional express written confirmation to that effect. The information is intended solely for the individual or entity named above and access by anyone else is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, any disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this information is prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this electronic transmission in error, please reply immediately to the sender that you have received the message in error, and delete it. Thank you.
SA
Sharon Abner
Mon, Oct 3, 2011 6:40 PM

They still nest on River Road in Kent. Sharon Abner

From: pcianfaglione@hotmail.com
To: ctbirds@lists.ctbirding.org
Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2011 16:57:44 +0000
Subject: [CT Birds] Cerulean Warbler Question

I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16).
Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community?

Paul Cianfaglione
Canton

Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats.
http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf

The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most
precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding
Bird Survey.

The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant
concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean
warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue
another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is
unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those.
Connecticut

Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state.
BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01
birds/route.
BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two
populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam.
Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier
1994, p.322-323).
State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory
Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in
Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm.,
12 August 1996).
Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage
Program.


This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut.
For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org

They still nest on River Road in Kent. Sharon Abner > From: pcianfaglione@hotmail.com > To: ctbirds@lists.ctbirding.org > Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2011 16:57:44 +0000 > Subject: [CT Birds] Cerulean Warbler Question > > > I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16). > Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community? > > Paul Cianfaglione > Canton > > Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats. > http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf > > The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most > precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding > Bird Survey. > > The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant > concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean > warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue > another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is > unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those. > Connecticut > > Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state. > BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01 > birds/route. > BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two > populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam. > Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier > 1994, p.322-323). > State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory > Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in > Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm., > 12 August 1996). > Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage > Program. > > > _______________________________________________ > This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut. > For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org
H
holmses@cox.net
Mon, Oct 3, 2011 8:57 PM

I've seen some at Cabela's buying House Sparrow camoulflage.
---- Sharon Abner sharonorganist@hotmail.com wrote:

They still nest on River Road in Kent. Sharon Abner

From: pcianfaglione@hotmail.com
To: ctbirds@lists.ctbirding.org
Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2011 16:57:44 +0000
Subject: [CT Birds] Cerulean Warbler Question

I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16).
Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community?

Paul Cianfaglione
Canton

Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats.
http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf

The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most
precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding
Bird Survey.

The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant
concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean
warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue
another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is
unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those.
Connecticut

Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state.
BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01
birds/route.
BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two
populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam.
Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier
1994, p.322-323).
State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory
Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in
Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm.,
12 August 1996).
Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage
Program.


This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut.
For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org


This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut.
For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org

I've seen some at Cabela's buying House Sparrow camoulflage. ---- Sharon Abner <sharonorganist@hotmail.com> wrote: > > They still nest on River Road in Kent. Sharon Abner > > From: pcianfaglione@hotmail.com > > To: ctbirds@lists.ctbirding.org > > Date: Mon, 3 Oct 2011 16:57:44 +0000 > > Subject: [CT Birds] Cerulean Warbler Question > > > > > > I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16). > > Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community? > > > > Paul Cianfaglione > > Canton > > > > Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats. > > http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf > > > > The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most > > precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding > > Bird Survey. > > > > The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant > > concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean > > warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue > > another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is > > unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those. > > Connecticut > > > > Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state. > > BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01 > > birds/route. > > BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two > > populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam. > > Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier > > 1994, p.322-323). > > State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory > > Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in > > Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm., > > 12 August 1996). > > Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage > > Program. > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut. > > For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org > > _______________________________________________ > This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut. > For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org
JM
Jamie Meyers
Mon, Oct 3, 2011 11:38 PM

Perhaps one of the best sources of information on this is the CT Breeding Bird Atlas.  Yes, it's now 15 - 20 years old but the work contained therein was the result of a search for breeders that was as intensive as any ever attempted in CT.  At that time, Ceruleans were definitely found in 9 blocks and suspected in 30 more, for a total of 39 blocks, which is 6.5% of the entire survey.  Acadians were confirmed in 19 and considered possible in 42 more for a total of 61, or 10.2% of all blocks.  It has been my experience in that time that Ceruleans may have increased a slight amount and Acadians have been stable, give or take a little. Even if the breeding bird atlas missed significant populations, I think the numbers presented in the booklet are grossly overstated.  River Road is thought to have, what 30 pairs of Ceruleans?  Are there 200 more River Roads in CT where Ceruleans are flourishing?

If so, let me know where they are too.  I need it for a bunch of town lists in this state.  Ditto for the Acadian.

Jamie Meyers
Canton, CT

----- Original Message -----
From: paul cianfaglione pcianfaglione@hotmail.com
To: Ctbirds Ctbirdslists ctbirds@lists.ctbirding.org
Sent: Mon, 03 Oct 2011 16:57:44 -0000 (UTC)
Subject: [CT Birds] Cerulean Warbler Question

I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16).
Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community?

Paul Cianfaglione
Canton

Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats.
http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf

The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most
precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding
Bird Survey.

The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant
concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean
warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue
another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is
unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those.
Connecticut

Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state.
BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01
birds/route.
BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two
populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam.
Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier
1994, p.322-323).
State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory
Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in
Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm.,
12 August 1996).
Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage
Program.


This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut.
For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org

Perhaps one of the best sources of information on this is the CT Breeding Bird Atlas. Yes, it's now 15 - 20 years old but the work contained therein was the result of a search for breeders that was as intensive as any ever attempted in CT. At that time, Ceruleans were definitely found in 9 blocks and suspected in 30 more, for a total of 39 blocks, which is 6.5% of the entire survey. Acadians were confirmed in 19 and considered possible in 42 more for a total of 61, or 10.2% of all blocks. It has been my experience in that time that Ceruleans may have increased a slight amount and Acadians have been stable, give or take a little. Even if the breeding bird atlas missed significant populations, I think the numbers presented in the booklet are grossly overstated. River Road is thought to have, what 30 pairs of Ceruleans? Are there 200 more River Roads in CT where Ceruleans are flourishing? If so, let me know where they are too. I need it for a bunch of town lists in this state. Ditto for the Acadian. Jamie Meyers Canton, CT ----- Original Message ----- From: paul cianfaglione <pcianfaglione@hotmail.com> To: Ctbirds Ctbirdslists <ctbirds@lists.ctbirding.org> Sent: Mon, 03 Oct 2011 16:57:44 -0000 (UTC) Subject: [CT Birds] Cerulean Warbler Question I was reading the 2011 Connecticut State Of The Birds booklet this morning and came across an eye-opening statistic stating that there are 6000 breeding male Cerulean Warbler and 10,000 male Acadian Flycatchers inhabit Connecticut's forests (Dr. Robert Craig, Director of Bird Conservation Research, Inc. , Putnam, CT; State of the Forest Birds, pg. 16). Does anyone have any other information or studies to substantiate these statistics? Are they this common? Where is their stronghold in the state? Any comments from the CT conservation community? Paul Cianfaglione Canton Below is a 2000 Cerulean Warbler Status Assessment and a couple excerpts that seem to contradict those stats. http://library.fws.gov/Pubs3/statusass/ceruleanwarbler.pdf The numbers of cerulean warblers are declining at rates comparable to the most precipitous rates documented among North American birds by the cooperative Breeding Bird Survey. The species is not in danger of imminent extinction, but it is rare enough to warrant concern, and its future is not assured. Based upon extensive BBS data, cerulean warblers have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Should that trend continue another 30 years, population sizes are predicted to be only 8% of the 1966 levels. It is unclear whether the species could persist with numbers as low as those. Connecticut Summary: Regular migrant and breeding species in small numbers in the state. BBS: No confident trend estimate is available from the BBS; relative abundance 0.01 birds/route. BBA: Breeding was confirmed on 9 of 39 blocks where located in the state, in two populations established in the 1970s, in the Housatonic Valley and at East Haddam. Occurrence on 6.5% of blocks in the state, representing all counties (Ellison in Bevier 1994, p.322-323). State Status: The species has no legal status other than that afforded by the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. The avian selection committee did not feel it met listing criteria in Connecticut (J. Dickson, Connecticut Dept. of Environmental Protection, pers. comm., 12 August 1996). Natural Heritage Rank: See Table 12. Tracked by the Connecticut Natural Heritage Program. _______________________________________________ This list is provided by the Connecticut Ornithological Association (COA) for the discussion of birds and birding in Connecticut. For subscription information visit http://lists.ctbirding.org/mailman/listinfo/ctbirds_lists.ctbirding.org