In a message dated 9/5/06 12:01:15 AM, Phil writes:
Insurance companies use "experience rating" in their rate calculations.
Question is when was the last devastating hurricane to inundate NYC? Next
the actuaries try to estimate when the next one is likely to be and set
rates accordingly.
Named storms to hit New York area in recent years:
Carol 1954
Connie and Diane 1955
Donna 1960
Agnes 1972
Gloria 1985
Felix 1995
Bertha 1996
Edouard 1996
Floyd 1999
Ernesto 2006
This is an average of about one named storm every 9 years. Not many compared
to Florida. The historical record shows that New York has a very strong
hurricane about once every 70 years or so. A massive hurricane in 1821 flooded most
of Manhattan up to Canal Street. In 1893 a hurricane destroyed most man made
structures in South Brooklyn and Queens with a 30 ft. storm surge. The
hurricane completely obliterated Hog Island, a resort area. In 1938 the "Long Island
Clipper" with 183 mph winds reshaped the Long Island shoreline en route to
wreaking havoc on New England. We are about due for the next one soon. Still
because the potential for damage is so great, insurance companies rate New York's
potential liability as just slightly lower than Miami and New Orleans. They
consider a New York hurricane as a low probability, high cost event.
New York actually has quite benign weather compared to some places I've
lived. The real weather danger for the New York area is not tropical storms but
Noreasters that tend to arrive after the hurricane season is over. That and
occasional heavy snowfall. The city is in the path of moisture laden storms from
the Gulf. If one happens to coincide with a jet stream propelled blast of cold
Canadian winter air we get three foot blizzards. But it's not as bad as Buffalo
with its lake effect storms. Fortunately all this occurs after the boating
season is over so our boat insurance rates don't climb.
But I agree with you that Con Edison should do more to keep the lights on. As
I write this, nearly 100,000 people are still without electricity as a result
of wimpy Ernesto.
Larry Z
In a message dated 9/5/06 12:01:15 AM, Phil writes:
> Insurance companies use "experience rating" in their rate calculations.
> Question is when was the last devastating hurricane to inundate NYC? Next
> the actuaries try to estimate when the next one is likely to be and set
> rates accordingly.
>
Named storms to hit New York area in recent years:
Carol 1954
Connie and Diane 1955
Donna 1960
Agnes 1972
Gloria 1985
Felix 1995
Bertha 1996
Edouard 1996
Floyd 1999
Ernesto 2006
This is an average of about one named storm every 9 years. Not many compared
to Florida. The historical record shows that New York has a very strong
hurricane about once every 70 years or so. A massive hurricane in 1821 flooded most
of Manhattan up to Canal Street. In 1893 a hurricane destroyed most man made
structures in South Brooklyn and Queens with a 30 ft. storm surge. The
hurricane completely obliterated Hog Island, a resort area. In 1938 the "Long Island
Clipper" with 183 mph winds reshaped the Long Island shoreline en route to
wreaking havoc on New England. We are about due for the next one soon. Still
because the potential for damage is so great, insurance companies rate New York's
potential liability as just slightly lower than Miami and New Orleans. They
consider a New York hurricane as a low probability, high cost event.
New York actually has quite benign weather compared to some places I've
lived. The real weather danger for the New York area is not tropical storms but
Noreasters that tend to arrive after the hurricane season is over. That and
occasional heavy snowfall. The city is in the path of moisture laden storms from
the Gulf. If one happens to coincide with a jet stream propelled blast of cold
Canadian winter air we get three foot blizzards. But it's not as bad as Buffalo
with its lake effect storms. Fortunately all this occurs after the boating
season is over so our boat insurance rates don't climb.
But I agree with you that Con Edison should do more to keep the lights on. As
I write this, nearly 100,000 people are still without electricity as a result
of wimpy Ernesto.
Larry Z
