Hi everyone, For the spring migration season I am going to try to post weekly "migration forecasts", with predictions for the following 6 days. These are mainly focused on southern Ontario, as that is the region I am most familiar with, but I will include comments on other areas of Ontario occasionally. *Please note that these are just my personal predictions & are by no means a sure thing. So if you consult only this to plan your trips, don't blame me if there aren't many birds that day : ) Ontario Migration Forecast - April 26th - May 1st Overview Last week started out fairly quiet, but then on Sunday the floodgates opened and a massive number of new migrants surged into the province. Southwestern Ontario saw its first orioles, grosbeaks and tanagers of 2022, and at least 20 warbler species were seen. Today was slower than the weekend overall, but some new arrivals definitely showed up around Ontario. This week will be a bit of calm after the storm though, temperatures will be dramatically cooler and the winds will be mainly out of the north. This is mainly due to a high pressure system located west of us, which also means it will be mainly sunny this week ; Low pressure = normally stormy, but warm… high pressure = normally clear skies, but cooler. Birds will still be trickling in, but the next big surge likely won’t be until at least later in the weekend. Looking at long term forecasts, Sunday looks *maybe* good, then after that maybe Tuesday or Wednesday. - Likely New Arrivals This Week; * (Note.: By “new arrivals” I mean low numbers of these birds, or the first one or two, showing up in the province. Usually Southwest Ontario gets birds about a week or more before other areas in the province too) - Wilson’s Phalarope - Black-bellied Plover - Semipalmated Plover - Least Sandpiper - Common Gallinule - Least Bittern - Sedge Wren - Marsh Wren - Ruby-throated Hummingbird - Least Flycatcher - Eastern Kingbird - Red-headed Woodpecker - Warbling Vireo - Red-eyed Vireo - White-eyed Vireo - Chimney Swift - American Pipit - Wood Thrush - Swainson’s Thrush - Veery - Red-headed Woodpecker - Gray Catbird - Cerulean Warbler - Prairie Warbler - Hooded Warbler - Northern Parula - Blackburnian Warbler - Common Yellowthroat - Northern Waterthrush - Black-and-white Warbler - Indigo Bunting *Migrants arriving in numbers this week;* - Lesser Yellowlegs - Spotted Sandpiper - Solitary Sandpiper - American Golden-plover - Common Loon - Yellow-bellied Sapsucker - Black-crowned Night-Heron - Forster’s Tern - Common Tern - Sora - Green Heron - Broad-winged Hawk - Hermit Thrush - Barn Swallow - Bank Swallow - Brown Thrasher - Ruby-crowned Kinglet - Blue-gray Gnatcatcher - Eastern Towhee - White-throated Sparrow - Chipping Sparrow - Field Sparrow - Vesper Sparrow - Savannah Sparrow - Palm Warbler - Yellow-rumped Warbler - Pine Warbler - Rarities to look for this week: - Black-necked Stilt, Willet, Marbled Godwit and American Avocet (especially in southwestern Ontario) - Neotropic Cormorant - Eared Grebe - Glossy and White-faced Ibis - White-winged Dove - Snowy Egret and Little Blue Heron - Smith’s Longspur (fields in southwestern Ontario) - Blue Grosbeak - Worm-eating and Kentucky Warblers - Summer Tanager Daily Forecasts - Tuesday, April 26th West winds, temperatures in the high single digits and cloudy skies for southern Ontario. I don’t think there will be much movement, but there are still a lot things around that arrived on the weekend so there are still birds around to find. - Wednesday, April 27th North winds, a chance of snow and temperatures starting out around the freezing point in southern Ontario. It should be a poor day for migration overall, with very low numbers of birds moving - Thursday, April 28th More north winds, but slightly warmer (only slightly) than the previous day with sunny skies. There should be a few birds moving, but overall it should be a rather poor migration day. The birding should still be decent though, if you’re fine with seeing mostly the same birds. - Friday, April 29th As of right now Friday is predicted to have north winds for the majority of the day. Temperatures shouldn’t be too bad (though still in the single digits) and there isn’t much pressure around. Some birds will still be moving I’m sure, although it likely won’t be that exciting of a day as far as new arrivals go. - Saturday April 30/Sunday May April 1 Again, once you start looking at weather five days/a week away, the accuracy of the forecasts go down. As of right now Saturday is looking rather unfavourable for migration and Sunday is looking like it could be ok… depending on when the low pressure system develops (if it even does). Summary Overall the last week of April is looking like it will be a quiet one for migration in Ontario. The past weekend spoiled us a bit, with many regions feeling like it was early May. A lot of rarities were seen following the amazing conditions on Sunday, and without a doubt there are surely a lot more waiting to be found around the province. I expect a few rares will be found during the week, though likely not a ton. Similarly some new migrants will turn up here and there, but it doesn’t look like there will be another big push until next week. Websites that I use frequently Windy (wind, temperature, precipitation and more) - windy.com Birdcast (good for large scale trends) - https://birdcast.info Accueweather (an easier to read weather site that is normally accurate) - https://www.accuweather.com If anyone is on Twitter, I post almost daily about weather birding related things. My handle is @ONweatherbirder