At 02:55 PM 11/27/02 -0700, you wrote: >Thanks Mike, > >This made me wonder. You deliver all sorts of vessels up and down the >coast. Are there specific conditions you've equated with certain types of >boats? Say for instance you were delivering a Bayliner 4788 from Long Beach >to Portland. Do you have a mental "table" that you consult that says, NW >wind above 30 kts and 5 foot or larger seas: No Go for the Bayliner. Maybe >no problem for a 47' full displacement vessel. > >It might be useful to write up such a chart and post it on your site or here >on the list. Some newbies like me lack the experience to make such >judgements. I'm just the kind of guy that reads the nordy stuff and thinks >hey, 60 kts and 20', no problem, the boat is good for it when in reality >staying home would be the decision made by a competent captain. > >Don't want to be a pest but you seem comfortable with making some >extraordinary efforts to keep us educated and safe. Thanks for that. 30 knots, and 5 foot seas????? Good god, 5 foot of sea is going to result from a fetch of about 5 miles or a little more, at 30 knots of wind speed. The wave height from 30 knots, an unlimited fetch and enough time for a mature sea state to develop is enough to create waves upwards of 30 feet in height. Who is it that does not understand that high winds can, not necessarily will, produce conditions severe enough to endanger any small craft. If you can be sure that the fetch(open distance) that the wind can act upon you is limited in some way, either by land mass or size of storm OR that the time with which is acting can be anticipated to be limited, then very high wind speeds can be ignored to some extent. However, if the fetch and or time with which the wind can act can not be assumed to be limited and that you can fairly accurately estimate these parameters and their consequences, then it would be wise if your fear got the best of you. At 60 knots, unlimited fetch and enough time for a mature sea state to develop, wave heights can approach 60 feet and that assumes no counter current which can cause even more elevation. The reason wave heights don't often become this severe is simply that the fetch is constrained by land mass or storm size and the duration that the wind is acting on the waves is limited for some reason. Otherwise there would be lot of dead sailors, as well as dead poets. Poets don't die because of bad weather, they just aren't recognized until they are. On the other hand sailors do and most of them can't wax poetic until they nearly have. If you are transiting near the coast then fetch is often constricted by the land mass around, ahead and behind. If you go into the open as in an open ocean passage then all that protection is peeled away. The chances of encountering storms that have no practical limit to their fetch and that can operate over enough time for a full developed sea state to occur, is very much higher than in any coastal passage. Failure to take your wariness with you when venturing offshore and ignoring the chances of really bad weather because some marketing types have demonstrated that they can get a boat around the world, without loosing it, does not mean that deliberately taking chances out in the open is a very good idea. Here are some rules of thumb, which you can call facts if you want. Most small craft will survive any storm that they happen to encounter. The storm that you won't survive is somewhere on the planet swirling around and looking for you. The storm that does not kill you, may very well be more storm than you ever want to encounter again. The weather forecasting services are getting better and survival of the fittest as proposed by Darwin is still the basic law of the sea. Assuming that the weather forecast is accurate is not a sign of intelligence, but an act of faith. Make sure you have a upper limit on your expendable faith. The definition of small craft is a vessel under 65'. Don't leave home without one. If the weather forecast has small craft warnings in it, which is wind speeds over 20 knots, and you don't know what to make of it, assume that you want to be cautious. If the wind speeds are predicted to go over 30, the fetch is unlimited and the duration uncertain, prepare for the worst, pray for less. Moderately bad weather most likely won't kill you, but unless you are well prepared it may convince you to take more precautions to avoid the same again. Really bad stuff, will probably convince you to forget the sea and take up farming. Assuming you live to exercise the option. What do I think about this in real practical terms? Any winds over 20 knots for any length of time and a serious amount of fetch are worth trying to avoid, in any small craft regardless of hull type. How much effort you go to avoid, is in some ways a measure of your tolerance for punishment. I have developed a low tolerance for high winds and big seas. Been there, done all that, why again? Besides, it's hard on the boat. I have not addressed the question of wave period, but at short wave periods which is what is being generated in the early stages of a storm the short period is often more of a problem than the wind or the actual wave height. I nearly lost a 27' Sportfisherman outside the mouth of the Columbia River about 40 years ago, due to 12' high 5-6 second period stuff that came in with a fast moving squall. We took 21 waves clear over the boat in a period of an hour and each time we had standing water on the front deck over the tops of the front windows and had a submariner's view of the ocean, a la 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea. This sort of green water over your windows comes as quite a shock. Not something you want to repeat. Regards, Mike Capt. Mike Maurice Wilsonville, Near Portland Oregon