Here is the latest from CEF. Officers are meeting with Sen. Reid’s folks tomorrow. It will be interesting to hear from Fitzhugh Elder on Friday. And yes, that is his actual name. I have a lot of comments this time, so feel free to skip and jump down to the actual update below… There is an important point I want to emphasize in Part III below. Last week there was revived talk of a short-term CR among Republicans on the Hill. A short-term CR until spring for all remaining FY 2017 appropriations bills is probably our worst case scenario because it would allow Republicans to make more massive cuts than they can with Obama still in office. Accordingly, it is unlikely that President Obama would sign off on such a CR. So I think a short term CR for all bills is still a pretty unlikely outcome. Second thing I want to emphasize, which some of you who I have talked to know I’ve been blabbering about since the election, is this thing about “budget reconciliation” and why this is important. Once the new Congress is sworn in, a lot of people think they will belatedly pass a FY 2017 budget resolution. Which sounds bizarre, doesn’t it? Especially if they finish off the FY 2017 appropriations before then. Why then pass a budget after the fact? Because budget resolutions can include “reconciliation instructions” for legislation that can pass with only 50 votes in the Senate. Reconciliation bills cannot be filibustered. There are limits to what can be included in a reconciliation bill, because it has to be budget-related, but you’d be surprised at how much you can do that is considered budget-related. This was the device Democrats used to get the Affordable Care Act through the Senate in 2010 or whenver that was, and, as Sheryl notes, they may use this to immediately repeal part of it. And/or do something else. We don’t know. But bears watching. And then they get another chance to get around fillibuster rules later this spring, by passing and FY 2018 Budget Resolution. Sheryl’s update ends with some rumors on who the next Secretary of Education might be. Some of the names being discussed, while they may carry a certain amount of political or ideological baggage, have at least presumably demonstrated some basic competency in terms of running an agency or office. Whch is why, quite frankly, I am dumfounded at seeing Kevin Chavous’s name on this list. Some of you know I used to work locally here in D.C., and Chavous was a member of the D.C. Council during that time, until he was soundly knocked off the Council in a re-election challenge by VIncent Gray, who later went on to become mayor (a whole other story). I don’t remember anyone on the Council having a worse reputation than Chavous — not on political or idealogical grounds, although there was some of that — but just in terms of basic competence and attentiveness to his constituents. I shouldn’t pre-judge or editorialize but it’s worth noting, just to be aware of what may be in store. Not noted below but kind of interesting: Democratic leaders in the House have delayed congressional leadership elections until Nov. 30, which House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi really wanted to do quickly this week. This suggests, possibly, some rumblings about leadership post-election that need to be hashed out. I can’t imagine Pelosi deposed, but, still, sort of interesting. I know we’ve faced threats on funding over the years but it really bears repeating that we are heading into really unknown territory with an unpredictable adminstration and an unheard of amount of power consolidated with one political party. The advocacy work ahead, in my opinion, is going to be much less about funding for one program or another but about opposing the dramatic structural changes to federal spending, accountability, and authority that would inevitably lead to the demise of federal support for many critical programs, including adult education. Jeff > Begin forwarded message: > > From: Sheryl Cohen <cohen@cef.org> > Subject: CEF Update 11.15.16 > Date: November 15, 2016 at 3:27:03 PM EST > To: CEFMembersList <CEFMembersList@cef.org> > Cc: Sarah Abernathy <abernathy@cef.org>, Owen Reilly <Reilly@acg-consultants.com>, Alex Hoffberg <hoffberg@acg-consultants.com> > > > Tuesday, December 15, 2016 > Dear CEF Members: > > I. Events > > · Post-election briefing rescheduled for December 7 with Chris Cillizza – CEF’s election debriefing (originally set for tomorrow) has been rescheduled for Wednesday, December 7, and will feature Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post’s “The Fix <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/>” blog. Save up your questions on everything you ever wanted to know about the election, and more! Mark your calendars for that afternoon, and we will follow up with a specific time and venue as soon as possible. > > · Friday morning meetings resume this week – Please mark your calendars for the following dates: > o November 18, 9-11am, at the University of California (1608 Rhode Island Ave, NW, 1st Floor Auditorium). Our speaker is Fitzhugh Elder, Deputy Staff Director for the Senate Appropriations Committee, who can provide the Majority perspective on how the 2017 appropriations process is likely to play out, and how the parameters for 2018 may change. We will also hear from Board members about what it’s like to serve on the CEF Board for those of you considering submitting a nomination by the November 28 deadline. > o December 2, 9-11am, at the NEA (News Conference Room, 1201 16th Street, NW). Our speaker is Erica Navarro, who replaced Tom Skelly as the Department of Education’s new director of the Budget Service. With the transition still to come, she won’t know about the Administration’s 2018 education priorities but can talk about how ED is preparing for the end of the fiscal year and the funding uncertainty, and what the budget preparation process is likely to look like for the 2018 budget. > o December 9, 9-11am. Venue and speakers to be determined. > o December 16, 9-11am, at the University of California (1608 Rhode Island Ave, NW, 1st Floor Auditorium). This is CEF’s annual meeting with the elections for next year’s board, so participation is important! > > II. Advocacy > > · Nominations for CEF Board due Nov. 28 - Participation on the CEF board is a great way to be more involved in CEF’s advocacy and direction. As always, it’s important that our board represent the full range of CEF’s membership. Information and the nomination form is attached. Nominations are due by November 28, emailed to Alex Hoffberg at Hoffberg@cef.org <mailto:Hoffberg@cef.org>. > > III. Policy Intelligence and Education News > > · What we’re hearing about 2017 appropriations – We’ve heard that after being told to “pause” immediately after the election, appropriations staff started working again this weekend on the 11 remaining 2017 funding bills. Some of the subcommittees have reached agreements on programmatic funding – not clear which ones - while others have unresolved issues that will be addressed at the full Committee level. Several packaging options are still under consideration: several packages that include all 11 remaining bills (so-called mini-buses); mini-buses for some bills but a continuing resolution (CR) for the whole year for other bills; or another short-term CR until spring for all remaining bills, but it seems unlikely that President Obama would sign such a bill. > > · Two outstanding issues are the total for defense, and how “parity” is maintained for any funding above the caps; since the caps were imposed in 2013, the defense and non-defense caps were raised or lowered by the same amounts each year. Last week the President submitted an $11.8 billion supplemental request <https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/assets/budget_amendments/oco_budget_amendment_11-10-16.pdf> for national security activities funded outside the caps, half for the Department of Defense and half for non-defense security-related activities at Department of State and the US Agency for International Development. In addition, there is still a chance for agreement on the 21st Century Cures Act that provides mandatory spending increases for the National Institutes for Health, which could possibly free up some discretionary funding that would otherwise be targeted for NIH. > > · Two budget resolutions next year? – Congressional republicans are reportedly <http://www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2016/11/11/gop-to-do-previously-unimaginable-things-to-slam-dunk-its-agenda/#91df74467b54> considering passing two budget resolutions next year so they can use the fast-track reconciliation process twice in one year. They could belatedly pass the fiscal year 2017 budget – the House Budget Committee approved it in March but never brought it to the floor for a vote, and the Senate never marked up a 2017 budget – and a conference agreement could include reconciliation instructions for legislation that could pass with only 50 votes in the Senate, as reconciliation bills cannot be filibustered. There are limits to what can be included in a reconciliation bill, but one could be used to repeal parts of the Affordable Care Act, for instance. Then Congress could pass a fiscal year 2018 budget resolution, which could in turn contain reconciliation instructions for a separate measure that could, for instance, be used to fast-track passage of tax reform. This strategy would not directly affect the discretionary caps, since Congress does not need a budget resolution to cut the level of appropriations below the sequester caps, nor would passage of a budget resolution be sufficient to raise the caps because it does not get signed into law, and changing the discretionary caps requires amending the Budget Control Act. > > · Rumors on potential Secretary of Education – There are plenty of people rumored to be under consideration to be nominated as Secretary of Education. The list includes Betsy DeVos <http://fed4children.wpengine.com/about-us/leadership/betsy-devos/> and Kevin Chavous <http://fed4children.wpengine.com/about-us/leadership/kevin-chavous/>, both at the American Federation for Children, an organization that supports school choice. Another possibility is Williamson Evers <http://www.hoover.org/profiles/williamson-m-evers> of the Hoover Institution, who is working on the education transition team. Rep. Luke Messer <http://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/trump-rumored-to-consider-tony-bennett-luke-messer-for-education-secretary> (R-IN) said he would be interested, and Indiana’s former Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Bennett <http://indianapublicmedia.org/stateimpact/tag/tony-bennett/> – a supporter of the Common Core standards as well as vouchers and charter schools - also has been mentioned as a possible contender. There are likely to be more names in circulation before a nominee is announced. > > > My best, > > Sheryl > > > Sheryl V. Cohen, Executive Director > 1800 M Street, NW > Suite 500 South > Washington, DC 20036 > T: 202-327-8125 > cohen@cef.org <mailto:cohen@cef.org> > www.cef.org <http://www.cef.org/> > >